Why power reliability is the next test for the region’s energy transition

As power demand rises from AI, desalination, and industrial development, utilities in the MENA region must deliver cleaner electricity without compromising the reliability that economies depend on.

What happens when a data centre, a desalination plant, or a city in peak summer heat all need power at the same time? For utilities in the Middle East and North Africa, that is no longer a future question but a present reality that indicates a turning point in the energy transition.

Years of prioritising speed in clean power deployment are now translating into tangible progress. The Dii MENA Energy Outlook 2026 shows that the region added nearly 15 GW of renewable capacity in 2025 alone.

While this progress is very positive, the growth of renewables alone is not enough; the real challenge now is ensuring power systems remain reliable as they become cleaner. Renewables are expanding rapidly, but their variable output — shaped by weather patterns and daylight cycles — does not always align with demand that remains high well into the evening. Homes still need cooling after sunset, factories continue to operate, and water must still be produced and pumped.

For utilities, the challenge has therefore shifted from simply adding renewable capacity to ensuring system flexibility, grid stability, and sufficient dispatchable backup to maintain reliability around the clock.

This dynamic is even more pronounced in MENA, where demand continues to grow.

The IEA has projected strong growth in solar PV in MENA while also highlighting that cooling and desalination could account for around 40% of demand growth. With desalination output potentially tripling by 2035 under current policy settings, it’s clear that energy and water security remain structurally interconnected.

At the same time, a new type of demand is emerging as the Gulf accelerates investment in AI, cloud services, and large-scale digital infrastructure. According to Strategy& and PwC, GCC data centre capacity is projected to grow from around 1 GW today to over 4 GW by 2030, equivalent to roughly 3–5% of total electricity consumption. Hyperscale AI projects — such as the proposed 5 GW Stargate UAE AI campus — require continuous, stable, high‑quality power with near‑zero tolerance for disruption.

Meanwhile, industrial electrification and desalination are creating larger, less flexible, and critical loads, where any drop in power quality has immediate consequences. Utilities must therefore not only plan for energy volumes, but also for system strength and resilience.

Beyond just installed megawatts, a modern power system requires frequency control, voltage support, adequate reserve margins, and fast-ramping assets that can respond within minutes — or even seconds — to maintain balance and keep the grid stable during sudden demand spikes or renewable fluctuations.

As a result, reliability, resilience and flexibility now matter as much as decarbonisation, and utilities must deliver all three simultaneously rather than trade one off against the others.

The practical path forward is a hybrid model in which renewables continue to grow rapidly, storage expands, and grid investment, particularly in transmission and digital control systems, accelerates. But for the near to medium term, flexible thermal power will remain essential to hold the system together.

Today, gas-fired generation still provides about 70% of electricity in MENA. The IEA suggests that around 110 GW of additional gas‑fired capacity may be added by 2035 under current policy settings, reflecting both rapid demand growth and the need for flexibility and system reliability as the energy mix evolves. This should not be seen as a step back from net zero, but rather as a pragmatic and progressive bridge to a lower-carbon future.

Policy must reflect this new reality by providing utilities with market signals that value flexibility and reliability alongside cost efficiency. Grid planning should be integrated with water, industrial, and digital infrastructure, while large new loads — such as AI campuses — require clear standards for resilience and system support.

From my discussions with utilities and grid operators across Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Mitsubishi Power, I see one lesson repeatedly: the strongest systems are never built around one single technology. They are built around balance.

As a result, the real task for utilities in MENA is to ensure the next phase of the energy transition supports economic growth, future water supply, and continuous electricity availability. Systems that lead in this transition will not only be cleaner, but also stronger, smarter, and always ready.