AVEVA CEO: the race to resilience is redefining energy security and industrial policy

In an era of intensifying volatility, the playbook for global energy industry is increasingly focusing on resilient pathways for a secure future, according to the CEO of AVEVA.

In an exclusive interaction on the sidelines of AVEVA World in Milan, Caspar Herzberg spoke to Energy Connects on what this “race to resilience” means for the future of industrial policy. Challenging the conventional wisdom that sustainability and heavy industrial resilience are at odds, Herzberg highlights how the push for diversified, redundant energy grids is driving sustainable outcomes. From the challenges of rapid localisation to the high-stakes deployment of digital twins and industrial AI, he outlines a realistic vision for the future of the world’s most complex energy infrastructure.

You have spoken extensively about the “race to resilience”. With nations treating energy security as synonymous with national security, what does this mean for global industrial policies? Do you believe this will drive localisation, globalisation, or a mix of both?

It will definitely spark more localised investments. We are going to see companies and governments investing in everything they can – from generation plants to processing plants, and generally moving toward multiples of industrial assets.

A clear hypothesis is emerging, and we’ve already observed it in the United States as a matter of policy. However, we’ve also seen the inherent challenges of rapid localization – specifically, that the necessary skills and human capital are often missing because capabilities have regressed over time. There simply aren’t always the people around locally to build these complex types of plants right away.

While there is a lot of talk about globalisation being rolled back, the world has been highly globalised before – such as before the First World War – and while it rolled back then, it was never totally dismantled. Because of modern data connectivity, global migration, and how interconnected we are, I don’t believe we will truly see a completely disconnected world.

Instead, resilience is going to be the defining imperative. But to execute resilience properly, it means implementing significantly more sustainability than we have had in the past.

That is an interesting connection. Usually, sustainability and heavy industrial resilience are viewed as being at odds. How do they align?

They align because everyone is going to invest into multiple, diversified sources of energy to prepare for the moment they are cut off from one. Look at what happened to Germany: they relied heavily on Russian gas, made a massive effort to pivot to Qatari gas, and now they must make another huge effort to truly diversify beyond gas toward every possible option. Even nuclear energy is now being considered as part of a broader European approach for Germany. Previously disregarded capabilities are making a major comeback.

We’ve seen this clearly in China. China is a much more sustainable place today than it was 10 or 15 years ago. That change didn’t happen because they focused purely on sustainability for its own sake; it happened because they wanted to be resilient. When you build highly diversified, redundant, and self-sufficient energy systems to achieve resilience, sustainability improves as a natural byproduct.

Furthermore, from a supply chain perspective, these hyper-thin, hyper-optimised global supply chains have always worried me. If you have all your eggs in one basket very far away, you are exposed. Doubling down on redundant local capabilities is simply good business and good grid resilience.

How do digital twins and artificial intelligence figure into this race for industrial resilience? Which sectors see the most critical need?

When we talk about a digital twin, we are talking about a digital representation of a physical asset. That can span from a 3D physical representation to a process-driven twin fueled by real-time operational data.

In a volatile world, you cannot afford to work in an environment where an unexpected shortage leaves you scrambling. This is where the digital twin and the ability to collaborate in the cloud become revolutionary. By utilising AI on top of a digital twin design, companies can significantly reduce engineering and design times, push that twin out, and collaborate seamlessly across the supply chain to build assets in fractions of historical timeframes.

We are seeing a doubling down on redundant capabilities across the board – whether in refineries, ports, shipping, pipelines, or nuclear power stations. Instead of seeing fewer complex plants in the future, we are actually seeing a lot more complex plants being commissioned to secure supply cushions.

Regarding AI, there is nothing inevitable about the way it will develop. We are all subjected to a relentless marketing machine from technology companies, but the reality is that the industrial sector is figuring out what works and what doesn't. In a process industry like refining, an AI model that works 99.5% of the time is not good enough; a refinery or a nuclear plant running on that margin would be forced to close.

Our mission at AVEVA is to safely mobilise industrial data. It’s about combining operational technology (OT) data with broader business data, planning systems, and supply chains into a unified view so that companies can deploy best-in-class AI analytics tools securely.