Middle East Conflict

In this episode of the Energy Connects Podcast, produced as part of ADIPEC’s Energy Markets and Geopolitics series, industry leaders examine how geopolitical volatility is reshaping global energy investment. From scaling up investment in upstream projects, oil markets and spare capacity to nuclear, hydrogen and renewables, the discussion highlights why resilience now demands investing in all energy systems, not replacing some of them. Featuring insights from His Excellency Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC Secretary General; Dr Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy and Secretary General of Arab Energy Club; and Nicolas Souche, Regional Industry Manager for Infrastructure at the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the conversation explores the urgent need to mobilise capital and de risk infrastructure to secure long term energy security.

Oil production in the Middle East has reduced substantially in line with the production and supply chain disruptions due to the Middle East conflict – but demand for the overall year and the longer-term horizon remain robust after an initial near-term dip, according to OPEC’s latest monthly report.

For now, every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the world continues to lose about 11 million barrels per day of oil supply out of about 105 million bpd of demand. Also cut off are 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas, some 40% of nitrogen-based fertiliser exports, 45% of sulphur exports, nearly 39% of helium, about 34% of methanol exports, from 9-15% of polymers, and 22% of non-Chinese aluminium production. Production of these energy-intensive commodities elsewhere will also be slashed by the loss of oil and gas feedstock. The best way to make this into a short-lived crisis is to plan for a long one, writes Robin Mills in his latest column for Energy Connects.

In this episode of the Energy Connects Podcast as part of ADIPEC's Energy and Geopolitics series, Jamie Webster, Partner and Director, Center for Energy Impact at Boston Consulting Group, examines how the Middle East conflict is reshaping global energy dynamics. He discusses the evolving definition of energy security since 2022, the renewed need for energy addition, and the mounting pressures on supply chains beyond oil and gas. Webster highlights the importance of resilience, diversified sourcing, strategic stockpiling and dialogue between governments, while warning of wider economic effects across chemicals, fertilisers and critical feedstocks. He also reflects on how shifting geopolitics may reshape global partnerships in an increasingly fragmented landscape.

In a pointed and urgent call to action following the US-Iran ceasefire, His Excellency Dr Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and Managing Director and Group CEO of ADNOC, has demanded the immediate and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil markets have reacted with textbook relief to the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran — and have likely overreached. Brent’s sharp sell-off — shedding more than $15/barrel within hours of the announcement — reflects a market eager to price out risk before the underlying conditions have meaningfully changed, Vandana Hari explains in her latest column for Energy Connects.

Europeans have been warned to prepare for a “long-lasting” energy shock that could lead to measures such as fuel rationing. The message comes amid energy market disruption caused by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Gulf infrastructure.