For now, every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the world continues to lose about 11 million barrels per day of oil supply out of about 105 million bpd of demand. Also cut off are 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas, some 40% of nitrogen-based fertiliser exports, 45% of sulphur exports, nearly 39% of helium, about 34% of methanol exports, from 9-15% of polymers, and 22% of non-Chinese aluminium production. Production of these energy-intensive commodities elsewhere will also b..
Oil markets have reacted with textbook relief to the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran — and have likely overreached. Brent’s sharp sell-off — shedding more than $15/barrel within hours of the announcement — reflects a market eager to price out risk before the underlying conditions have meaningfully changed, Vandana Hari explains in her latest column for Energy Connects.
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