Rystad: China's data centre capacity to double, boosting power demand by 2030
China is set to nearly double its data centre capacity in five years, driving the sector’s power consumption to an estimated 289 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030, according to Rystad Energy.
Rystad Energy says it is more than double last year's levels and would account for about 2.3% of total national electricity usage by the end of the decade.
New analysis from the independent energy research and business intelligence company confirms 28GW worth of new projects are due online by 2030. This brings the total to 32GW at the close of 2025, while installed capacity is projected to reach 40GW by later this year.
Statista recently reported that the US leads globally with 4,184 data centres, followed by the UK with 515, and China fourth with 369. As of November 2025, an estimated 12,000 data centres operated worldwide.
Resource organisation Global Electricity says these facilities currently consume 1-2% of global electricity — about 300-400 TWh annually — a number projected to double by 2030.
The World Economic Forum estimates the global data centre industry will be worth more than $584 billion by 2032 — more than twice the April 2025 estimate.
AI growth driving data centre energy consumption
The figures reflect the speed of buildout across the sector. Data centres are expected to be China’s fastest-growing source of power demand, with Rystad forecasting that consumption would rise at an annual rate of 19% between 2025 and 2030, driven by rapid growth in AI and high-performance computing (HPC).
These facilities are significantly more energy-intensive than data centres built for general-purpose computing; data suggests they will account for 39% of installed capacity this year, rising to an expected 48% by 2030.
Goldman Sachs Research analysts anticipated power demand from China’s data centres would increase 25% in 2025. They forecast that China's cloud service providers would raise capex by about 65% and top internet firms would invest more than $70 billion this year to support AI.
“One top cloud computing company and a major AI player plans to increase its data centre capacity 10 times by 2032,” said Timothy Zhao, Executive Director, Goldman Sachs Research.
Shift in China's power demand mix
The changing pattern of energy consumption is illustrated by figures from Rystad Energy: industrial demand is projected to slow from a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% between 2021 and 2025 to 3% between 2026 and 2030.
Data centres, by comparison, accounted for 1.2% of total power demand last year. They posted a 38% CAGR over the past five years and are forecast to maintain a 19% CAGR through 2030.
Rystad expects China’s overall power demand to grow at a CAGR of 3.9% through 2030 amid efficiency improvements and shifts in the demand mix, down from 6.5% during the 14th Five-Year Plan. Consumption exceeded 10,000 TWh last year.
“China’s data centre sector is no longer a peripheral part of the country’s power system; it is becoming a structural driver of demand in its own right,” commented Rystad’s Simeng Deng, Senior Analyst, Renewables & Power Research.
“What sets this buildout apart is the speed of the AI-driven shift, which is compressing timelines for both infrastructure deployment and energy procurement.”
Renewables and efficiency targets
China operates a reliable power system with sufficient baseload from coal and resilient grid networks to supply surging data centre demand. However, the scale of sector expansion also offers an opportunity to boost the nation’s renewable energy use.
Data centre development is a strategic priority in China’s 2026-2030 15th Five-Year Plan. It places a dual focus on efficiency and renewable integration and, under the country’s 2025 action plan for green data centres, new projects within China’s eight national computing hubs are required to source at least 80% of energy from renewable sources.
Operators are responding with diversified procurement strategies.
Power sourcing strategies and integration
The most widely used method is green electricity certificate procurement, which offers flexibility without requiring physical access to renewable infrastructure.
Green power trading, direct connection to off-site wind or solar farms, and onsite generation are also strategies, with many operators layering multiple approaches to meet renewable targets and reliability requirements.
Wind, solar, and battery energy storage integration is emerging as key for the sector’s next phase, alongside grid connection, while power usage effectiveness (PUE) is a key metric of data centre efficiency.
Targets introduced in 2024 called for at least 60% utilisation of data centre capacity nationwide and an average PUE below 1.5 by 2025 end. A PUE of 1.25 or lower must be reached by new large and mega data centres, with a stricter 1.2 threshold for national computing hub projects.
“Operators are not waiting for policy incentives or mandates to integrate renewables,” added Deng.
“They are increasingly combining different power sources such as wind, solar and battery storage because reliable electricity and lower-carbon supply have become business priorities.”
