Energy security is the priority of our current times
The evolving energy priorities of affordability, climate change, and energy security was the starting point for the Global Strategy roundtable Global energy outlook: what the experts are saying.
As an interactive session, the audience was also asked to vote for what they thought was the most crucial issue in the ‘energy trilemma’. The results showed that 53% believed that energy security was the most important, 33% voted for affordability and 12% voted for climate and sustainability.
The panel of five experts largely agreed with the results. Clayton Seigle, senior fellow in the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and James R. Schlesinger Chair in Energy and Geopolitics, said that he had seen a shift in thinking in the US in recent years.
“We have moved on from emphasising sustainability, and this is largely because the energy sector has been caught in the crossfire of the war in Europe, and the challenges in the Middle East, Venezuela and Nigeria.
“We are going to need natural gas throughout our lifetimes, and probably throughout our grandchildren’s lifetimes, too. It is a vital cornerstone fuel for the world economy and demand for it will grow in the future.”
Affordability is another big topic. When President Trump came into office he immediately started talking about reducing the cost of fuel.”
Giuseppina Ragone, Senior Vice President, Strategy and Portfolio for the International Exploration and Production in Equinor, added that while the weight of the three priorities change over time, they are always there and always important.
“Affordability goes hand in hand with security,” she said. “You need both, particularly when it comes to trading. After all, disruptions in trading also impact security.”
The discussion then touched upon how China has contributed to the stability of global markets and oil and gas trading, with Dr. Lu Ruquan, Senior Economist, President of CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute and the Executive Deputy Director of CNPC National High-End Think Tank Research Center explaining that China had “established relationships with almost every oil and gas exporters in the world.”
“China is the largest oil importer in the world,” he noted. “Our consumption of natural gas is growing too. We want to become an electrified state, and we will need more gas to power this.”
On the topic of the future growth of gas, Mike Sommers, President & CEO of the American Petroleum Institute (API) declared that natural gas was a ‘forever fuel’.
“I think everyone understands that we are going to need natural gas throughout our lifetimes, and probably throughout our grandchildren’s lifetimes,” he said.
“It is a cornerstone fuel for the world economy that will be impacted by more people plugging their cars into the grid, air conditioning and other factors. We're going to need a lot more natural gas in the future.”
The take on oil was rather different. Joel Couse, Directorate of Energy Markets and Security and Special Advisor to the International Energy Agency (IEA) declared that the industry was experiencing a period of slow growth.
“In the past year, we’ve already seen a decline in demand in Europe, South Korea and the US,” he explained.
“What happens next will very much depend on the result of the recent sanctions that have been applied to Russia and Russian companies, and how much oil that is going to push out of the market.”
