US Pins Hope for Cease-Fire and More on Sinwar’s Killing

(Bloomberg) -- The Biden administration underscored Friday the admittedly fragile prospect that Israel’s killing of the top Hamas leader will open the way for a cease-fire and even for a long-term resolution of the war in Gaza.

Yahya Sinwar was “the main obstacle to getting a cease-fire done,” John Kirby, spokesman for the US National Security Council, told reporters in Berlin, so his death on Wednesday in the besieged Palestinian territory “can provide an inflection point.” 

President Joe Biden, who’s sending Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the region to seek a breakthrough, said “now is the time to move on” and called for making “this moment an opportunity.”

Israel said it eliminated Sinwar on Wednesday in Gaza, just over a year after he ordered an attack on Israel in which his militants killed 1,200 people and took about 250 hostage. 

Neither Israel nor Hamas suggested a willingness to stop the fighting. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said “the mission before us is yet to be completed.” Hamas should no longer be able to govern in Gaza, he said, and about 100 hostages still need to be rescued. Dozens of those captured are believed to still be alive. 

Khalil al-Hayya, the deputy leader of Hamas, said his death provides fresh motivation to carry on the fight to “liberate our people” until a Palestinian state is established. He said the hostages “will not return unless the aggression on Gaza stops,” Israel withdraws from the enclave and Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails are released.

Sinwar, who hadn’t been heard from in weeks, was slain in southern Gaza in what appeared to be a chance encounter. The killing marked a significant moment in a conflict that’s spread to Lebanon, where Israel has escalated an offensive against the militant group Hezbollah after a year of cross-border skirmishes. Both Hamas and Hezbollah are backed by Iran and are designated terrorist groups by the US.

Even with a cease-fire still elusive, US officials acknowledged their hope that Sinwar’s demise might open the way to a more lasting solution for Gaza that would involve the participation of Arab nations.

“Hopefully countries in the region will step up,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters in Brussels on Friday. “There quite possibly can be a part the United States could play as well. What part that would be and what that would look like, we’re going to have to work with our allies and partners to scope that out.”

Kirby said Biden is focused for now on getting hostages released and a cease-fire in place but that Blinken and his team are working hard on “day after” concerns so that Gaza “can be governed by authorities, institutions that are answerable to the Palestinians who live there and not to a terrorist organization.”

With the world bracing for Israel’s expected retaliation against Iran for an Oct. 1 missile barrage, Netanyahu scored another coup after the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in July and Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah last month.

Successor Question

Sinwar’s demise leaves Hamas in need of a successor.

It’s considered likely to name the Qatar-based al-Hayya, aligning it closer to Iran and giving its main backer more sway in the next stage of the group’s war with Israel. 

Al-Hayya is a protégé of Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran in July in a bombing that Israel has neither confirmed nor denied staging. Al-Hayya has been leading indirect negotiations with Israel over both a cease-fire in Gaza and the release of hostages kidnapped by Hamas.

Al-Hayya’s remarks in a televised speech on Friday suggests he is assuming the leadership role, at least on an acting basis. He vowed to use Israel’s killing of Sinwar this week as motivation to continue fighting.

Sinwar’s death could also see the elevation of two figures on the ground in Gaza: his brother and right-hand man Mohammed, and Izz al-Din Haddad, who is the military head for the territory’s northern section.  

In the hours after Sinwar’s killing became public, Hezbollah said it was transitioning to a new phase of its confrontation with Israel. The group has been firing missiles into the north of the country since Israel started its campaign in Gaza.

Israel’s operations in Lebanon have killed at least 1,500 people since last month, health ministry officials in Lebanon have said, and displaced more than a million. In Gaza, the death toll has reached at least 42,000, according to authorities in the Hamas-run enclave. 

What Is Hamas? What Does It Want? Who Will Lead It?: QuickTake

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has also stirred internal tensions in Lebanon. On Friday, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati called out Iran for what he described as interference in his country’s internal affairs. That was after Tehran said it was ready to negotiate with France on a resolution that only the Lebanese army be deployed in the south of the country.

“We are surprised by this position, which constitutes a blatant interference in Lebanese affairs and an attempt to establish a rejected guardianship over Lebanon,” Mikati said in a post on X. He summoned the chargé d’affairs of the Iranian embassy in Beirut on Friday, according to a statement. 

(Updates with likely successor as Hamas leader starting in 13th paragraph)

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