Why resilience is the new measure of energy leadership

When International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol recently argued that Gulf exporters “need to regain their reputation as reliable exporters,” he gave voice to a concern shared by some following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz over the last few months.

But there is another — and I believe more compelling — interpretation.

Customers whose cargoes continued arriving through Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, or through the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline bypassing Hormuz, may well conclude they are dealing with some of the world’s most reliable energy suppliers. The recent crisis did not expose a failure of Gulf producers. It validated decades of strategic investment designed precisely for moments like these.

The distinction is an important one. There is a fundamental difference between geopolitical risk and supplier reliability. No energy producer can eliminate regional conflict or geopolitical tensions. The true measure of leadership is whether producers anticipate those risks, invest to reduce their impact, and continue delivering when markets are under extraordinary stress.

For decades, energy markets have measured leadership by production capacity, reserve replacement, and spare capacity. Those metrics remain essential. But today’s world demands another benchmark: resilience capacity.

Resilience capacity is the ability of an energy system to anticipate disruption, absorb shocks, adapt quickly, and continue delivering reliable supplies despite geopolitical crises, infrastructure failures, cyber threats, or market volatility. In a more uncertain world, it may become the defining measure of energy leadership.

Leadership is measured by preparation

The Strait of Hormuz has long been recognised as one of the world’s most strategically important — and vulnerable — energy chokepoints. The recent disruption did not reveal a new risk. It validated investments made years before the crisis ever occurred.

Long before the latest tensions, Saudi Arabia invested in the East-West Pipeline linking its eastern producing fields with export terminals on the Red Sea. The United Arab Emirates constructed the Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline, enabling significant export volumes to bypass Hormuz altogether.

Strategic storage facilities, expanded export terminals, and operational redundancy were developed not in response to a single crisis, but as part of a deliberate long-term strategy to ensure customers continued receiving reliable supplies.

These investments were never simply infrastructure projects. They were investments in confidence. No producer can guarantee that geopolitical crises will never occur. Responsible producers invest so geopolitical risk does not become supply risk.

Leadership is measured across the entire value chain

The recent crisis also highlighted another often-overlooked reality: energy security extends well beyond crude oil production. Disruptions to Hormuz affected not only crude flows but also global markets for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemical feedstocks. Product security can quickly become just as important as crude supply security.

This is where Gulf producers — particularly Saudi Arabia and Saudi Aramco — have demonstrated long-term strategic leadership. For decades, Saudi Arabia has invested not only in maintaining production capacity and significant spare capacity, but also in one of the world’s most extensive downstream portfolios.

Through investments in refineries, petrochemical complexes, storage terminals, and integrated marketing ventures across Asia, Europe, and North America, Aramco has strengthened the resilience of global fuel supply chains while creating greater flexibility during periods of disruption.

Reliable energy markets are built not simply on producing molecules but on ensuring those molecules can be transported, refined, stored, and ultimately delivered to consumers under virtually any market condition.

Every bypass pipeline, every strategic storage terminal, every refinery located closer to demand centres, and every investment in integrated logistics enhances resilience capacity — not only for producers, but for consumers as well.

Leadership is measured by performance

The true test of reliability comes when markets are under stress. Throughout the recent crisis, Gulf producers worked to restore exports, maximise alternative infrastructure, and fulfill contractual commitments under exceptionally difficult circumstances. Their objective was not simply to maximise production, but to minimise disruption for consuming countries already facing heightened uncertainty.

Refiners do not judge reliability solely by headlines. They judge it by whether contracted cargoes arrive, refineries continue operating, and customers receive the supplies they depend upon. Trust in energy markets is earned one cargo, one contract, and one investment decision at a time.

Leadership is measured by looking ahead

The most enduring consequence of the Hormuz crisis may not be the disruption itself, but the investments it will inspire.

Just as earlier disruptions accelerated investments in bypass pipelines, strategic storage, and export diversification, recent events are likely to catalyse a new generation of resilience investments across the Gulf. Additional storage capacity, enhanced maritime logistics, expanded downstream integration, digital supply-chain management, cyber resilience, and greater export flexibility will further strengthen the reliability of Gulf energy supplies.

For decades, Gulf producers invested primarily in expanding production capacity. The next chapter is likely to focus equally on expanding resilience capacity — building energy systems that are not only larger, but more adaptable, redundant, and secure.

History rarely remembers energy crises for the disruptions they cause. It remembers them for the innovations and investments they inspire. The true measure of energy leadership is not the absence of geopolitical risk. It is the presence of resilience capacity. In an increasingly uncertain world, resilience has become one of the world’s most valuable energy resources.

The new measure of energy leadership is not whether geopolitical risks exist — they always will. It is whether producers prepare for them, continue delivering through them, and emerge even better prepared for the next challenge. By that measure, Gulf producers are not simply preserving trust — they are setting a new standard for energy leadership in an increasingly uncertain world.

• Joseph McMonigle is the President of the Global Center for Energy Analysis and former Secretary General of the International Energy Forum.