One billion barrels of emergency stocks remain in oil reserves, IEA says

International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries still hold more than one billion barrels of government-controlled emergency stocks, according to Dr Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of IEA. 

Taking emergency action following the US-Iran war, IEA member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels on 11 March. Since then, they have released around 290 million barrels of oil onto global markets, helping offset supply disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the releases, Dr Birol warned there is “no room for complacency” as commercial oil inventories continue to decline and geopolitical tensions remain elevated. “The escalation in hostilities affecting the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure in the region increases security of supply concerns and uncertainty over the market outlook,” Dr Birol added.

Markets remain supplied for now

While security risks have intensified, the IEA said crude markets continue to benefit from several cushioning factors. The agency noted that weaker Chinese crude imports have reduced pressure on global demand, helping to keep oil markets balanced despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have maintained significant exports through alternative routes as well as limited shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, while higher production from countries including the United States, Brazil, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan has helped offset some of the losses from the Gulf.

The IEA, however, highlighted that refinery activity has not recovered as quickly as crude production, leaving supplies of refined products such as diesel and gasoline tighter than crude markets. Meanwhile, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell to its lowest in 43 years last week, exacerbating supply concerns. 

Threats to inventories 

Rystad Energy has also noted that 2.5 million barrels per day of Saudi oil is at risk, due to threats from Houthi rebels to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Jorge Leon, Senior Vice President and Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, said, “The threat is particularly significant because Saudi Arabia has increased exports from Yanbu to around four million barrels per day as it seeks to bypass the Strait of Hormuz,” he added.

“Rystad Energy vessel-tracking data indicates that approximately 2.5 million barrels per day of these volumes are currently moving south through Bab el-Mandeb, leaving a critical alternative export route directly exposed to potential Houthi action,” said León. He added that the situation could give rise to a significant rebound in oil prices if a ceasefire deal is not reached. 

The combination of shrinking commercial inventories and continued geopolitical tensions means oil security remains a key concern, even as strategic reserves continue to cushion the market.

The IEA said a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains essential to reducing uncertainty and strengthening global energy security, warning that emergency stockpiles are designed to provide temporary relief rather than replace sustained oil supplies.

“There is no room for complacency on oil security amid the escalation in hostilities and a continued drawdown of available commercial inventories,” Dr Birol said.