OPEC projects oil demand to reach 123 million barrels daily by 2050
Global energy demand is set to grow substantially over the coming decades, presenting significant investment opportunities as the world works to meet the needs of developing economies, according to OPEC's World Oil Outlook 2025.
OPEC's flagship annual publication analysing medium- and long-term outlooks for the oil industry projects that global energy needs will expand by 23% by mid-century, with oil demand climbing to 123 million barrels per day. Speaking at ADIPEC 2025, Dr. Ayed S. Al-Qahtani, Director of Research Division at OPEC, outlined the 2025 edition's long-term projections, investment requirements, and the evolving energy mix.
OPEC's 2025 outlook confirms that oil will remain central to the global energy system. "Oil and gas will still constitute north of 50% of the global energy mix, even by 2050," Dr. Al-Qahtani noted, whilst electricity demand is projected to surge 80% over the next 25 years.
The outlook identifies developing economies as the primary drivers of future energy growth. "Oil growth going forward will be exclusively in developing countries...all of it will be in developing countries," Dr. Al-Qahtani confirmed.
India alone is expected to account for "8 million barrels" of new demand, with China, the Middle East, South Asia, and Latin America also experiencing strong growth. OECD countries, by contrast, face "stagnation and even contraction."
Meeting this demand will require substantial investment across the energy value chain. "We see a lot of investments required, needing north of $18.2 trillion on the upstream, midstream, and downstream only on oil," Dr. Al-Qahtani stated.
"Going forward, the world would need around $15 trillion in the upstream...the bulk...will be on the OPEC countries, because they will have to fill in the gap. They are the lowest cost producers. So the last barrel that would hit the market will come out of the Middle East region."
OPEC's modelling incorporates multiple scenarios to account for different policy and technology pathways. "Scenario planning is science and art at the same time...we mapped out two: the equitable growth...and the technology-driven scenario," Dr. Al-Qahtani explained. Even in the most ambitious technology-driven scenario, "we still see oil growing at healthy levels, remaining above 100 [million barrels/day]."
Dr. Al-Qahtani emphasised the collaborative approach needed to meet global energy needs: "We need all sources of energy, because the global economy is like a growing child that is thirsty for all sources of energy."
He underscored the importance of dialogue between producers, consumers, and policymakers, noting that "the importance of balancing energy security, environmental responsibility, affordability, and sustainability is reiterated" throughout the outlook.
