Top Carmakers Unlikely to Hit US Emission Goals, Greenpeace Says

(Bloomberg) -- Several of the world’s largest carmakers, including Toyota Motor Corp. and General Motor Co., are unlikely to meet new US greenhouse gas emission targets by 2032, according to analysis by Greenpeace, in a sign they need to accelerate their adoption of electric vehicles to avoid penalties.

Tailpipe carbon dioxide emissions from the seven leading automakers in the US are on track to exceed Environmental Protection Agency standards by between 8% and 154% — varying by carmaker — even if the companies meet their current sales projections for electric vehicles, the report says. 

As well as Toyota and GM, the report covers Ford Motor Co., Honda Motor Co., Nissan Motor Co., Stellantis NV and Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp., which it treats as a single entity.

While the Greenpeace report calls on the companies to gradually phase out internal combustion engine vehicles globally by 2030, the automakers may struggle to do so amid a slowdown in EV demand. The goal may prove even tougher for Japanese car companies, which have lagged behind their peers in adopting electric power trains.

GM is the latest company to walk back expectations for its EV program. Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra told CNBC at an event Monday that the company won’t have production capacity in place to reach its previous target of building one million EVs by the end of next year. Customer demand will dictate how fast the company can get to the one-million mark for EV sales, she added.

In a response to the Greenpeace report, GM said it “supports the goals of the EPA’s final rule and its intention to significantly reduce emissions. Although challenging, we believe our commitments and investments in an all-electric future place GM in an excellent position to contribute to the goals of the final rule.”

The Biden administration announced new standards in March, which will require automakers to limit their average tailpipe CO2 emissions to below 85 grams per mile by 2032, from 320 grams per mile on average in 2023. Under one scenario according to the EPA’s modeling, automakers could comply with the requirements by boosting battery-electric vehicles to 56% of total US sales, with plug-in hybrids and conventional combustion-engine cars making up 13% and 29% of sales respectively.

While the Greenpeace report presents a concerning picture, automakers’ plans for transitioning to more EVs and hybrid vehicles are likely to develop in the years leading up to the new rules coming into effect.  

Automakers with strong sales plans for electric vehicles in the US, such as Honda, GM and Ford, are expected to come closest to the emission standards, overshooting them by between 8% and 12% if they successfully achieve their sales targets, according to Greenpeace. 

“We’ve been a leader in working with the EPA and other stakeholders to develop smart, achievable CO2 emissions standards and are committed to complying with them. For competitive reasons, we can’t provide details about how we’ll do so over the next several years,” Ford said in a response by email.

Toyota and Nissan have the most work to do to reach the 2032 goals, according to the Greenpeace report. Toyota is set to exceed the targets by 154%, with Nissan seen to be 76% over the limit. Toyota aims to increase its sales of battery electric vehicles to 3.5 million by 2030. The world largest automaker sold 104,000 EVs last year.

“The EPA’s 2032 standards are challenging for all automakers and will require significant consumer shifts to electric vehicles,” a Nissan spokesperson told Bloomberg, adding the company has plans to introduce more electric and hybrid models to move the company to a long-term goal of zero emissions.

Toyota and Honda didn’t respond to a Bloomberg request for comment.

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