Europe searches for jet fuel alternatives as Middle East supplies halt
Europe is scrambling to find alternative jet fuel supplies as the aviation industry faces a critical shortage.
Prices have surged above $200 a barrel, with inventories remaining tight, according to Société Générale analysts, as the bloc faces a complete halt of imports from the Middle East.
The supply disruption, triggered by the US-Israel conflict with Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, comes as airlines prepare for peak summer travel.
European aviation vulnerability
Amid these developments, Kpler says that losses through the Strait have slashed the total global seaborne jet supply by nearly 21%.
Europe has historically relied heavily on the Middle East; it accounted for about 60% of external jet fuel imports to European OECD countries last year. Aviation in these nations consumes approximately 1.6 mbpd of jet fuel and kerosene daily, Société Générale says. Regional refinery production is about 1.1 million barrels, leaving a 500,000 bpd deficit covered by imports.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) previously warned Europe could face shortages by June if it doesn’t replace more than half of its regular Middle Eastern supplies.
Limited alternatives
But replacement options are limited. Kpler says strong Asian pricing and export restrictions in China and potentially South Korea could divert cargoes away from Europe as those countries protect domestic markets, making eastern barrels less available.
The Atlantic Basin — primarily the US Gulf Coast and West Africa — is seen as a realistic source, but only a partial replacement due to logistical constraints and limited spare export capacity.
Société Générale said US global exports of jet fuel soared to a record 442,000 bpd in early April, about 200,000 bpd above usual. Pre-war, Europe typically received 30,000-60,000 bpd of that — as of late April, it was about 200,000 bpd.
Indian cargoes remain a potential source, but EU sanctions exposure linked to Russian crude runs at Jamnagar refinery could complicate supply.
Potential African relief
Some jet fuel flow is coming from Nigeria. The Dangote Refinery, regarded by many as Africa’s largest, is operating at full capacity, producing about 24 million litres of aviation fuel a day, reports Business Insider Africa. This has enabled it to export jet fuel and other products to multiple African and international markets while serving domestic needs, and to capitalise on a huge revenue opportunity as European buyers have been willing to pay a premium.
European refiners are estimated to earn around $15 per barrel; Dangote plant margins are more than double that, supported by access to locally sourced crude and facility scale. Dangote also sources much of its crude from the US, other African producers, and Brazil, meaning it isn’t exposed to the Hormuz closure.
Rising crude prices have boosted export demand, as Nigerian exports to Europe reached record levels of 78,000-96,000 bpd in April.
Rising prices and possible disruption
That scenario places a strain on domestic airlines in Africa, which are facing their own operational cost hikes, and highlights the tension between export-driven profitability and local affordability.
Kpler says Europe is unlikely to fully replace the Middle Eastern jet fuel it has lost in the near term. This pushes the airline industry toward increased prices and longer trade routes to rebalance flows and maintain flight schedules. But the prospect of further flight cancellations, substantial price rises on retained routes, and the knock-on damage to tourism remains.
Sweden’s energy minister said that his country currently has a good supply of jet fuel, but warned of a shortage further ahead.
European airlines have warned of the impact of high jet fuel prices, but many have played down fears of an imminent shortage, including budget airline Wizz and British Airways IAG.
This was supported by Galp, the Portuguese refiner and a major jet fuel supplier, which said it didn’t anticipate supply disruptions ahead of the holiday travel season.
