China’s Coal Emissions Are a Mystery in Fog of Conflicting Data

By Bloomberg

Feb 15, 2023

image is BloomburgMedia_RQ22V7T0G1KZ01_15-02-2023_06-27-11_638120160000000000.jpg

WUHAN, CHINA - NOVEMBER 11: (CHINA OUT) An aerial view of the coal fired power plant on November 11, 2021 in Hanchuan, Hubei province, China. China and the United States on Wednesday released the China-U.S. Joint Glasgow Declaration on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s here at the ongoing COP26 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.his is the 26th "Conference of the Parties" and represents a gathering of all the countries signed on to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Climate Agreement. The aim of this year's conference is to commit countries to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.(Photo by Getty Images)

(Bloomberg) -- Whether or not the world’s biggest polluter increased carbon emissions last year is up for debate after releases of conflicting Chinese data, according to a leading climate researcher.

The discrepancy lies in the difference between official statistics indicating strong growth in coal use, and industrial data showing weak output in all of the major coal-burning sectors, said Lauri Myllyvirta, an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The difference means that China’s emissions could have increased by 1.3% at one extreme, or fallen by 1% at the other, Myllyvirta wrote in a report published in Carbon Brief.

China is by far the world’s largest source of greenhouse gases, and the gap between the two estimates is equivalent to Spain’s entire annual emissions in 2020, according to BP Plc data. The risk is that any increase will derail the government’s target of reducing the economy’s emissions intensity by 2025, which has implications for its broader net zero goals and the world’s carbon budget as a whole.

The National Bureau of Statistics didn’t respond to a request for comment outside normal business hours.

As last year’s Covid Zero restrictions and property crisis suppressed economic growth, coal power generation grew by less than 1%, while production of heavily emitting steel and cement both contracted. Despite that, official consumption data showed a 3.3% increase in coal use, Myllyvirta said.

One possible reason for the discrepancy is the global spike in natural gas prices last year, which led power plants and factories to swap in cheaper coal. Still, China’s capacity for switching between the fuels is limited, so that couldn’t account for the entire difference, he said.

Another possibility is that China’s push to mine more coal led to increased production of lower-quality fuel. That would mean more volume was needed to generate the same amount of electricity.

Having abandoned Covid Zero, China’s growth is highly likely to accelerate this year. But emissions don’t necessarily have to follow suit, Myllyvirta said. Although demand for transport fuels is set to rebound after the end of movement restrictions, if the government shifts its stimulus away from heavy industry and toward household consumption, it could get the economy back on track while steering clear of missing its climate targets, he said.

The Week’s Diary

Wednesday, Feb. 15

China sets monthly medium-term lending rate, 09:20
China holds briefing in Beijing on natural disaster risks, 10:00
CCTD’s weekly online briefing on Chinese coal, 15:00
CRU webinar on metals impact of China’s post-Covid recovery, 16:00
China Photovoltaic Industry Association’s 2022 review & 2023 outlook seminar in Beijing, day 1
Light Energy Cup solar forum in Suzhou, day 1
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visits China

Thursday, Feb. 16

China new home prices for January, 09:30
China Photovoltaic Industry Assoc.’s solar 2022 review & 2023 outlook seminar in Beijing, day 1
Light Energy Cup solar forum in Suzhou, day 2
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visits China

Friday, Feb. 17