IEA: Russia oil supply to drop by 3 mb/d from May

Russian oil supply is expected to fall by 1.5 million barrels/day (mb/d) in April, with effects of sanctions and shut-ins will lead to a further drop around 3 mb/d from May, said the International Energy Agency in its monthly oil report. 

The agency said coupled with severe new lockdown measures amid the rises in Covid cases in China have also led to a downward revision in their expectations for global oil demand in 2Q22 and for the year as a whole. 

“As a result, our estimate for global oil demand has been lowered by 260 kb/d for the year versus last month’s Report, and demand is now expected to average 99.4 mb/d in 2022, up by 1.9 mb/d from 2021,” said the agency.

However, they explained that the stock releases from their member countries should prevent a sharp deficit from developing.

Supply demand has risen sharply after Russia's invasion of Ukraine which has led the oil prices to increase grammatically. This month the IEA announced it will release 120 million barrels from strategic reserves, including 60 million from the United States.