Oil Demand Is Back at 2019 Levels and Set to Rise, Vitol CEO Says

(Bloomberg) -- The head of Vitol Group, the world’s biggest independent oil trader, said global demand has recovered to 2019 pre-pandemic levels and is poised to go even higher early next year.

Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy said demand for oil will exceed 2019 levels during the first quarter of 2022. Hardy spoke online at the Reuters Commodities Trading Conference on Tuesday.

The strong demand call by the top oil trader adds to bullish sentiments issued by production major BP Plc, which said that demand for crude is back to about 100 million barrels a day, levels not seen since before the pandemic. 

The rebound in demand for fossil fuel hydrocarbons comes as global political, corporate and climate change activist leaders meet in Glasgow for the COP26 in an effort to agree on reductions for greenhouse gas emissions. 

Market supply and demand is “going to be reasonably tight” for the next 12 months and a price spike to $100 a barrel is “certainly a possibility,” Hardy said.

Hardy cautioned that jet fuel and U.S. gasoline demand are not yet fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

The forecast underscores how demand for diesel and petrochemicals is driving the crude oil recovery despite continued weakness in air travel that has decimated demand for jet fuel.

Hardy said the oil market will remain tight as OPEC producers currently have between 2 million barrels and 3 million barrels per day of spare production capacity.

U.S. oil production growth will be less than 1 million barrels of oil per day in 2022, Hardy said, suggesting that supply and demand balances will remain tight.

(Updates with comments on OPEC capacity in 8th paragraph.)

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