Why SAF forces us to rethink scale, feedstocks, and flexibility

SAF in 2026 is a focal point for climate ambition, energy security and industrial strategy, revealing both the scale of the challenge ahead and the breadth of solutions now taking shape.

As we look towards 2026, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) sits at the intersection of climate ambition, energy security, and industrial strategy. Aviation has no near-term substitute for liquid fuels, which makes SAF not simply a decarbonisation lever, but a test of how quickly and intelligently the energy system can evolve.

The scale of the challenge is clear: reaching a 5% global SAF blend by 2030 requires roughly an eightfold increase in production from today’s levels. That degree of growth will not come from incremental improvements or from reliance on a single pathway. It demands a portfolio approach that grows capability, supply chains, and resilience at the same time.

Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) has rightly led early deployment, offering a proven route that fits existing infrastructure - but its feedstock constraints are becoming increasingly visible. Lipids are finite, geographically concentrated, and exposed to competition from renewable diesel, chemicals, and food markets. As SAF demand accelerates, these vulnerabilities will sharpen rather than fade. Scale, therefore, forces diversification.

Pathways such as Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) illustrate why flexibility matters. ATJ can draw on alcohols produced from agricultural residues, municipal solid waste, industrial off-gases, or other regionally available resources. This diversity enables countries and companies to leverage what they already have - waste streams, agricultural by-products, industrial emissions - rather than importing scarcity. In doing so, SAF becomes not only a climate solution, but also a tool for energy independence and domestic economic growth.

"Traditional energy systems are not going away anytime soon. Instead, the next phase of the transition is about managed evolution, running multiple technologies in parallel, accepting that not all will win, and deliberately spreading risk as scale increases".

How hydrogen fits into the scheme of things

Hydrogen is central to this picture, not peripheral. Over time, hydrogen-based pathways will be essential to reaching deep decarbonisation, particularly through synthetic fuels and power-to-liquids. But hydrogen will scale with the industry, not ahead of it. Infrastructure, cost reductions, and supply chains are developing in parallel with SAF demand. The implication is not to wait, but to build optionality now, investing in hydrogen-ready pathways while deploying solutions that can scale immediately.

This is where technologies that minimise near-term hydrogen dependence play a critical complementary role. Gas fermentation and biological platforms can convert waste and biogenic carbon directly into fuels or intermediates, reducing pressure on constrained inputs while still delivering meaningful emissions reductions. LanzaTech is a well-known example of how industrial carbon can be repurposed into value, turning local liabilities into strategic feedstocks.

The path forward

Taken together, this is not a story of disruption replacing incumbency. Traditional energy systems are not going away anytime soon. Instead, the next phase of the transition is about managed evolution, running multiple technologies in parallel, accepting that not all will win, and deliberately spreading risk as scale increases.

By 2026, leadership in SAF will be defined by those who embrace diversification as strategy. Scaling multiple pathways at once strengthens energy security, supports local economies, and builds resilience against future supply chain shocks. In a world where demand is rising faster than certainty, the smartest move is not to pick a single answer, but to build the capacity to adapt.