2026: from ambition to execution in the green molecule transition

It is no longer enough to simply decarbonise electricity networks, but rather we now need to tackle the harder to abate sectors. 2025 was an important moment of clarification for the global energy and industrial sector when it comes to developing a nascent green molecule sector. Expectations became more grounded, timelines more realistic, and the sector moved beyond the early hype that inevitably accompanies major innovation. That is not a sign of slowing momentum. It is a sign of progress and maturity.

A major learning from 2025 was that de-risked scale will matter, because energy and industrial systems will not change through small, disconnected projects. They will change when solutions are large enough to shift cost curves, and provide confidence to end users regarding volume. A breakthrough on this front is the increasingly ubiquitous breaking down of giga-scale projects into repeatablenode building blocks, as by the P2(H2)NodeTM architecture developed in Australia. In 2026, we should expect to see clearer differentiation between initiatives designed to operate at system scale using nodes, versus those that struggle to move beyond demonstration.

Crucial role of geography

We have also seen that geography will play a crucial role. Competitive production of green molecules will concentrate in locations with exceptional renewable resources, access to large areas of land and stable policy environments. Western Australia, Oman and Saudi Arabia are excellent examples of jurisdictions which meet those requirements and are well-placed to be major players. A core challenge now is alignment and timing. Supply must develop in step with demand, and both must be supported by credible policy frameworks. Without this coordination, even well-designed projects will stall. 

As seen for LNG, wind, and solar before, government support played a crucial role in their establishment, and helping these technologies become cost competitive without subsidy support. Green molecules will be no exception. Clear customer signals are emerging in certain areas to support a green premium. However, in practice, government- backed measures, such as contracts, financial guarantees, tax and regulatory incentives and clear, long-term standards are needed to provide the certainty projects and offtakers need to commit in these formative years. When governments are willing to stand behind these commitments, private capital and industry can follow with confidence.

“As we look ahead to 2026, the need for green molecules will continue to grow, and the question is no longer whether green molecules will happen, or how they will be delivered, but rather which projects have been well-planned and developed to deliver large-scale, low-cost and highly reliable product."

Longer-term view

InterContinental Energy, we have always taken a long-term view because large-scale energy infrastructure takes time to plan, permit and build. Just as importantly, it must come online when demand is ready to absorb it. That is why we are scheduling first production in the early 2030s, aligned with when we see demand materialising at scale across sectors such as steel, industry, transport and manufacturing. As we look ahead to 2026, the need for green molecules molecules will continue to grow, and the question is no longer whether green molecules will happen, or how they will be delivered, but rather which projects have been well planned and developed to deliver large-scale, low-cost and highly reliable product.

The coming year will increasingly reward those focused on execution. Capital providers should focus on projects that can deliver multi-phase scale, have prioritised partnerships over proliferation, and are in line with policies that materially support decarbonisation and energy security. All the above means that while progress may sometimes appear slower, or perhaps more realistic, than early optimistic forecasts suggested, we should remain confident in the direction of travel.