Will Europe have enough gas in storage to make it through next winter? Will jet fuel still be available at airports come July? Will the planes that carry American or Asian families back home from their summer vacations in the Old Continent (and the cargo that keeps supply chains moving) still be taking off and landing?
These questions sit at the heart of what Europe is now confronting: its second major energy shock in four years, as the continent moves from spring into a potentially difficult summer.
The Strait of Hormuz may be thousands of miles away from Berlin, Rome or Paris, but if it “remains closed in the months ahead, we will see increasing disruptions that go beyond simple price increases — jet fuel scarcity will reduce flight availability, diesel supply will be at risk," says Raffaella Tenconi, Chief Economist at Wood & Company in London.
“Europe cannot escape the economic damage of a shortage of energy, but can accelerate the evolution of its investment cycle — there could be a sharp slowdown in economic activity and a visible acceleration of inflation.”
“Europe cannot escape the economic damage of a shortage of energy, but can accelerate the evolution of its investment cycle — there could be a sharp slowdown in economic activity and a visible acceleration of inflation.”
- Raffaella Tenconi, Chief Economist at Wood & Company
Another upheaval
After four years spent rebuilding its energy security amid the war in Ukraine — with the US emerging as a structural backstop and REPowerEU diversification largely holding — the Old Continent now finds itself staring at a predicament it had hoped never to face.
What is unfolding now is a global shock that hits Asia hardest, given its heavy reliance on Qatari and UAE LNG volumes, while reverberating across the world through prices.
Europe entered this upheaval with gas storage at its lowest level in years after a harsh winter, and filling reserves back to the mandatory level by November will require a substantial effort at a moment when higher prices are drawing flexible LNG cargoes toward Asian markets. The International Energy Agency's latest Gas Market Report has declined to issue a short‑term demand forecast, saying uncertainty is simply too deep for any reliable model.
Brussels acts — with caution
After a brief April ceasefire raised and then dashed hopes of a quick resolution, the European Commission unveiled its 'AccelerateEU' package on April 22 — deliberately more measured than the sweeping interventions of 2022.
No pan-European price cap, no windfall tax for now. Instead: coordinated storage refill, relaxed state aid rules, energy vouchers and electricity tax reductions. Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen was frank: "Europeans are paying the price of Europe's dependency on imported fossil fuels." Whether the political will exists to move as fast as in 2022 remains an open question.
The lessons learnt with REPowerEU were not fully absorbed before this shock arrived, and the IEA's latest report makes clear the medium-term supply outlook has been set back by years.
As spring tips toward summer, the energy shock is showing up in airline schedules, holiday booking patterns, and boardroom risk assessments across the continent.
European vacations
Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary has warned that the Middle East conflict could cause severe disruptions to European jet fuel supplies and potential flight cancellations in May and June 2026.
IEA chief Fatih Birol warned in mid-April that Europe had roughly six weeks of jet fuel reserves remaining. The Commission has pushed back, insisting there are no physical shortages yet, but acknowledges a market that is "tight" and demand in the hottest months is typically far higher than in spring.
For Mediterranean economies, the stakes are existential. A late-April survey by Italian research firm Eumetra found two in three Italians already fear difficulties finding fuel at the pump, while a third worry about restrictions on air travel to and from the country.
"In Italy as well as in Spain, Greece and other Mediterranean nations, most touristic operators are recording cancellations or postponements of bookings," says Michele Costabile, Professor of Business Economics and Marketing at LUISS Guido Carli University in Rome. “To offset that decline, affected companies will have to refocus on domestic customers, who in turn may opt for holidays closer to home.”
"In Italy as well as in Spain, Greece and other Mediterranean nations, most touristic operators are recording cancellations or postponements of bookings. To offset that decline, affected companies will have to refocus on domestic customers, who in turn may opt for holidays closer to home."
- Michele Costabile, Professor of Business Economics and Marketing at LUISS Guido Carli University in Rome
The Cyprus test
Cyprus captures the full picture: sitting just 260 kilometres from Lebanon, the island saw tourist arrivals collapse in March — over 60,000 fewer visitors — partly because Iranian Shahed drones targeted British military bases on its soil in the opening weeks of the war.
"We come from three years of constant growth. Now we are worried," Kostas Koumis, Cypriot Deputy Minister of Tourism, told Italian news agency ANSA after hosting an EU summit in the capital Nicosia.
He pointedly noted that the conflict's impact "has not been the same for all the European Union countries" — a warning that Italy has already echoed, calling for a dedicated EU tourism fund.
Matter of trust
Will the energy sector eventually need its own dedicated response fund?
For sure, what Europe does in the coming weeks on storage, aviation fuel and the transition will shape not just which version of this summer it lives through, but its economic and political direction for years to come.
“Importantly, without a rapid solution to this conflict, the erosion of trust between Europe and the US will run deeper yet, increasing Europe's resolution to boost its own defence capacity and energy transition,” Tenconi said.
Energy Connects includes information by a variety of sources, such as contributing experts, external journalists and comments from attendees of our events, which may contain personal opinion of others. All opinions expressed are solely the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Energy Connects, dmg events, its parent company DMGT or any affiliates of the same.
