Weight-loss and the transition: four ways medical breakthroughs will impact the future of energy

Ozempic, Mounjaro and similar drugs have transformed weight-loss medicine. Expiry of patents in India, China and other big countries next year, and the development of similar drugs in pill-form, avoiding the need for injections, should make them much more affordable and convenient. Does this medical breakthrough also have potential for a leaner, fitter energy system?

Three-quarters of American adults are overweight or obese. Obesity in the Gulf countries, with their sedentary lifestyles and hot outdoors, is more than 30 percent. In the huge populations of India and China, greater consumption of processed, high-calorie foods, and less active habits, is causing sharp increases in excess weight.

Beneficial impact for energy

The class of GLP-1 inhibitors were originally developed to help with type-2 diabetes, but have turned out to have many beneficial effects. They allow people to lose substantial amounts of weight, averaging around 12 percent. Users may reduce food intake by several hundred calories daily, compared to recommended daily amounts of 2,000 calories for a woman and 2,500 calories for a man.

Even more importantly, unlike purely diet-based interventions, people can keep the weight off, if they continue taking the medicine. Keeping up the treatment has proved difficult for many so far, because of their high cost, but the imminent appearance of low-cost generic versions should make sustained use feasible, particularly in middle- income countries.

They also appear to have a remarkable set of other positive effects on health, reducing the risks of heart disease, stroke, liver disease, high blood pressure, various cancers, and even slowing the progression of neurological conditions such as Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s. Insurers’ models suggest they could cut mortality by 5-6 per cent in the UK and US.

Carbon-free modes of transport

The full ramifications of widespread use of GLP-1 inhibitors will take time to emerge, and may spring surprises. But for the energy industry, at least four areas could be important.

First, most directly, the weight of airline passengers, which has been steadily climbing, may drop back. On a simple calculation, a fully-loaded Airbus A380, with 500 mostly adult passengers who have slimmed down, might save about 1 percent on take-off weight, seeing a corresponding drop in fuel consumption of about 0.75 percent. That is a noticeable but not huge effect, and probably cancelled out by more generous baggage allowances, and greater travel if prices drop and comfort in the air improves.

The effect could be more helpful for short-range battery-powered planes and air-taxis, which are starting to emerge as viable carbon-free transport modes. They crucially need to save weight to achieve satisfactory ranges.

Impact on food industry

Second, the food industry is increasingly entwined with energy. It is a major consumer, to fuel farm machinery and food transport and processing, and to produce fertilisers. It is a big generator of greenhouse gases, particularly methane from cattle and nitrous oxide from the breakdown of fertilisers. Water demands, overuse of fertilisers and pesticides, and forest clearance, cause major environmental damage. And biofuels, made from agricultural waste or specially-grown crops, are an important part of decarbonisation plans for air and sea travel.

Users of these medicines see their spending on food fall 11 percent on average, with particular drops for high-fat, sugary and processed foods. Alcohol intake may also drop, especially among the small group of heavy drinkers who account for 60 percent of all alcohol use.

The effects here are complex. It could mean less energy consumption and land-use for agriculture. If beef-eating reduces, that would have a major impact on cutting methane emissions. Land not needed for agriculture might be returned to nature, cutting deforestation, or it could ease the tension between food and biofuels.

Increasing lifespans

Third, lifespans will increase, particularly years of healthy life for older people. Ageing populations are already almost universal across higher-income countries, including China. By 2050, the global fertility rate is expected to fall below the level of 2.1 children per woman required for a stable population. World population will peak at about 10.3 billion people by the 2080s.

If people live longer, this peak in population will be delayed to some extent. But the population pyramid in wealthy countries will be even more lopsided than now, with small younger cohorts supporting large numbers of elderly.

If GLP-1 inhibitors keep those older people in better health, and willing and able to work for longer, that may ease the problems of the demographic transition. That in turn means more energy consumption, particularly as older people in wealthy countries are avid consumers of travel and leisure.

Finally, weight loss medication promises an overall healthier, more active and productive global population. That will mean a more dynamic world economy, and higher incomes, with extra energy needs. So the energy business, whether for oil, gas or low-carbon, should welcome the day we put a little less on our plates.

• Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis