COP28 has incentivised the GCC Renewable Energy Sector but where are we now?

COP28 held in Dubai was a landmark event for the renewables and sustainability industry in the region.  The commitment to triple the global renewable energy capacity by 2030, from 3,400 GW last year to 10,500–11,000 GW by 2030, means an annual addition of over 1,500 GW by 2030.

There has been a lot of discussion about how much of this target should and can be delivered from the GCC region.  The reality is that the GCC uses around 2.5% of the electricity generated in the world.  This is around 37.5GW of power. The six GCC countries make up some of the sunniest in the world and have the ability to deliver very large amounts of low cost solar power and yet at the moment they only have 0.7% of the worldwide solar generation capacity.  The gap between their electricity energy demands and the generation ability has to be closed.

Five of the six GCC countries, recognising this fact, have set net-zero carbon dates so the development and operating of renewable energy solutions is a key test of their ambitions and the technology deployment in the region.  As all the nations implement strategies to diversify their economies away from hydrocarbons the delivery of green energy is essential.

There are a number of different factors at play in the region which are directing the focus on renewable energy and alongside this water sustainability.  The counties in the region led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE are undergoing a renaissance.  Post Covid, which they handled a lot better than many other economies, they are showing very strong growth as they expand their non-oil sectors and benefit for maturing and aging markets in many other parts of the world.

With young, educated and very dynamic populations the leaders in the region have realised that they need to create GDP growth, provide new jobs and promote business.  They have invested in technology, from AI to Bitcoin, and also in renewables and green energy.  After Covid there has been a movement away from long and risky supply chains with the near-shoring of businesses and industries to reduce the risk from events like the pandemic.

These relocating industries want stable and liquid markets but also the ability to reduce their carbon footprint.  The GCC countries offer the ability to do this taking into account the projected potential for renewable generation.  The GCC countries occupy a strong geographic position bridging between the traditional northern economies and the rapidly developing global south. 

So the question is whether over the next 5-10 years can the region produce the required 37.5 GW of renewable energy, also recognising that the strength on the regional economies, coupled with very young population demographics means that there will be exponential growth.

The answer is that this is indeed achievable based on the investment and approach that we are already seeing.  Saudi Arabia alone is committed to more than 20 GW in generation capacity by 2030 and overall the GCC is likely to increase production more than 10 times over 2022 levels by 2030.

We can see that the generation, use and further technology advances in renewable energy will give the region the leadership in this sector that it already has in desalination and water sustainability.

For desalination the GCC countries had a pioneering role which started in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s and today they lead the world in desalination capacity.  Desalination plants operate in 186 countries around the world producing 140 million cubic meters of clean water daily, with the GCC responsible for nearly half of this output, despite making up less than 1% of the world's population.

We can see that the same leadership that has been shown in desalination will eventually happen with solar, wind and hydrogen renewable energy, until a point is reached when the region will be an exporter of green energy to non-GCC countries.

The logistics of transporting water is in many ways much easier than transmitting and storing power which is why the region is looking into areas such as battery storage.

With all new technology comes change which has to be managed.  Whether it is the impact on wild life of wind turbines or managing the saline brine produced from desalination, these areas need to be carefully managed without losing sight of the messages we all took from COP28.  The option to ignore climate change no longer exists.  Actions have to be taken, and we believe that the leaders in the GCC have become very significant actors in the move to develop sustainable energy sources in the same way that they have changed the way we can now tackle water scarcity.