Atlantic to See Up to 15 Storms This Year, AccuWeather Says
(Bloomberg) -- The Atlantic hurricane season is expected to produce 11 to 15 named storms, near the long-term average, with the highest risks along the northern and eastern portions of the US Gulf Coast and the Carolinas, AccuWeather Inc. said.
Of those, four to seven are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of at least 74 miles (119 kilometers) per hour, including two to four major systems exceeding winds of 111 mph, the commercial forecaster said in its annual seasonal outlook. Storms receive names once winds reach tropical-storm strength of 39 mph.
Atlantic hurricanes have massive impacts on coastal communities, as well as energy, agriculture, real estate and financial markets. The US Gulf offshore accounts for 13% of crude oil production and roughly 1% of natural gas output in 2025 and 2026. Even weaker tropical storms can halt offshore production for days. Ongoing tensions in Iran threaten to amplify price shocks if supply is disrupted.
Florida is a major producer of orange juice, while crops across the South, including cotton, are vulnerable to storm damage. About 18.3% of US homes, valued at $8 trillion, are vulnerable to hurricane wind damage, according to Realtor.com.
A year ago, AccuWeather predicted the Atlantic would produce as many as 25 storms. The season ultimately produced 13, including Hurricane Melissa, which tore through the Caribbean in October, killing at least 95 people and striking Jamaica as one of the strongest systems to ever hit the island.
While the potential emergence later this year of El Niño would ordinarily lead to a below-average hurricane season — the phenomenon typically leads to increased wind shear in the Atlantic, disrupting storm formation — unusually warm waters could counteract that. Hot oceans provide additional fuel, allowing storms to develop despite higher wind shear, according to Alex DaSilva, an AccuWeather meteorologist.
“The oceans have been warmer and that absolutely can be tied to climate change,” DaSilva said. “Unless we see some sort of crazy ocean cooling, this is going to be something we are going to see year in and year out.”
Elevated ocean temperatures near the US coastline also increase the risk of rapid intensification, when a storm’s top winds rise by about 35 mph within 24 hours. These events can leave residents and officials little time to prepare.
“This is becoming the norm, as long as these waters are exceptionally warm, and warm with depth,” DaSilva said. “Even in El Niño years, the risk of rapid intensification is going to be high.”
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