Indian Farmers Await Early-July Rains to Catch Up on Planting
(Bloomberg) -- Ample rain forecast for early July could help India’s farmers make up for a weak start to the monsoon as the busiest sowing period for key crops approaches.
July is the main planting month for monsoon crops such as rice, soybeans, cotton and pulses. If the forecast holds, the rainfall could help farmers boost sowing, reducing risks to crop output, food inflation and rural incomes.
The monsoon delivers the bulk of India’s annual rainfall, replenishing groundwater reserves and supporting agricultural activity. Below-normal precipitation has in the past prompted authorities to restrict exports of key farm commodities to secure domestic supply. In May, the government banned sugar exports through Sept. 30.
Poor precipitation has so far disrupted sowing, with India recording a rainfall deficit of more than 40% so far this month. The latest forecast by the weather bureau points to normal to above-normal precipitation in the first week of July. However, the outlook remains sensitive to rainfall distribution, as heavy downpours over a short period could also create disruptions.
“I want to stress that the distribution of rainfall is more important than the quantity of rainfall received” within the next three to four weeks, said Harsha Muragod, an analyst at Expana.
The area under monsoon-sown crops including rice, oilseeds, corn and cotton fell to 18.27 million hectares (45 million acres) as of June 25, down almost 23% from a year earlier, according to farm ministry data.
For Vinod Patidar, who grows peanuts, black gram and soybeans across 25 acres in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, the late arrival of rains has pushed back sowing, shifting the harvest further into the season. He began planting peanuts on Monday, about two weeks behind schedule.
“My fields desperately need rain, and it’s all in God’s hands now,” Patidar said. “We’re already running late.”
India has identified 315 districts vulnerable to below-normal rainfall, including 111 high-priority areas with limited irrigation, the farm ministry said this month after a review held by Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Contingency plans will guide crop choices, water use and emergency measures across 12 states, including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
Scant rains have kept the weather hot in many parts of the country, boosting demand for electricity for cooling and irrigation, an activity that farmers carry out after sunset to avoid the heat. That has kept evening power demand elevated. As a result, evening supply shortfalls have returned after a brief early-June respite.
Heat waves are a major driver of electricity demand in India, but lack of rain can cause unusual consumption surges during the monsoon months. In 2023, the nation witnessed that year’s highest power demand in September, as a result of weak rains.
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