European Gas Steady as Traders See Muted Response to Iran Attack

(Bloomberg) -- European natural gas prices were steady as traders anticipate Israel’s response to Iran’s attack over the weekend to remain contained, limiting additional risks to global energy flows.

Benchmark futures eased from the biggest weekly increase since October last Friday. Markets have started to price in greater geopolitical jitters in recent trading sessions — in part because of Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure — with prices now near €30 per megawatt-hour.

“The attack by Iran is unlikely to lead to a further escalation for now, even as medium-term risks have risen,” Citigroup Inc. strategists wrote on a note on Monday morning. “Having said that, risks have clearly risen as a result of this weekend’s attacks. More broadly, the events may be symptoms of broader challenges to global cooperation.”

More than 300 missiles and drones were fired by Iran over the weekend — the first from Iranian soil against Israel — though most were intercepted. The attack had been expected for days and came in retaliation for a strike in Syria that killed Iranian military officers.

While Europe doesn’t source much gas from the region, its reliance on global markets has surged since it lost most pipeline flows from Russia in 2022. Even events occurring far from home impact prices, and volatility has become a common feature in the market since the energy crisis.

The continent is focusing on rebuilding stockpiles for next winter, after it ended winter with storage sites at record levels. Mild weather and weak industrial demand have kept a lid on consumption. 

“With European Union gas stocks full at an all-time high for this period of the year, there is indeed no reason to panic,” analysts at Engie SA’s EnergyScan wrote in a note. 

Still, Norwegian gas flows to the continent remain depressed, following unplanned maintenance at some of the country’s facilities that started over the weekend. Works are now expected to last until at least Tuesday, according to the network operator Gassco AS.

Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, rose  to € a megawatt-hour at 11:02 a.m. in Amsterdam. 

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