European Gas Posts Biggest Weekly Drop Since May as Stocks Rise

(Bloomberg) -- European natural gas prices posted their biggest weekly drop since May as rising inventories and lackluster demand outweigh supply and weather-related risks.

The benchmark front-month contract edged higher on Friday, but still ended the week down 9.8%. Works at Norway’s Troll gas field were extended again, adding to the strain on Europe’s supply. Still, the continent’s storage facilities are already almost 79% full, well above the seasonal average. 

That’s helped to offset the recent volatility driven by outages, trader bets and global heat waves that boost energy usage for cooling. European storage levels are projected to “reach capacity limits in two months’ time,” so prices should still fall later this summer, Citigroup Inc. said in a note. 

Germany and Spain are bracing for sweltering heat through the weekend, while water levels at a key waypoint on the Rhine River — vital for the transportation of energy commodities — remain near historic lows.

The Norwegian outages and hot weather have provided some support to the market, Citigroup said. However, “strong gas demand in Europe and Asia might not materialize to the extent that some might hope,” especially if temperatures ease seasonally during the next two weeks, the bank said.

Looking further out, traders are also weighing risks for the upcoming heating season, and winter contracts have been more resilient recently. 

“As things stand we will get through the coming winter in very good shape,” German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said in the Bundestag on Friday. He cautioned that the market shouldn’t relax as factors from cold weather to infrastructure disruptions could change the balance. “We are not yet out of the woods.”

Benchmark Dutch front-month gas rose 3.5% on Friday to €33.48 a megawatt-hour, trimming the weekly decline. The equivalent contract for January delivery advanced 3.2% to €56.55, and gained 2.7% this week.

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