China Keeps Pushing Nuclear Power With Ambitious Growth Target
(Bloomberg) -- China is maintaining the pressure on its nuclear power giants to deliver more reactors with an ambitious new target, despite a string of misses in recent years.
The government last week set a goal of 110 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2030 in its latest five-year plan draft, a 76% jump from the end of last year. The new objective comes after the country fell short of reaching 58 gigawatts by 2020 and 70 gigawatts by 2025.
The lofty target underscores the priority Chinese leaders have placed on the around-the-clock reliability of nuclear’s carbon-free electricity. Wind and solar are helping the country meet growing power needs without lifting emissions, but their intermittent delivery is increasingly straining the grid.
China is set to overtake France and the US as the world’s biggest producer of atomic power by the end of the decade, with a pipeline of dozens of new reactors currently under development. The country has largely managed to maintain its construction schedules and keep a lid on costs, even as they’ve spun out of control in the US and Europe.
Still, the industry’s execution has been hobbled somewhat over the past decade by disruptions following the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan and snags in the global supply chain after the Covid pandemic.
The latest goal will also probably be missed, unless the government counts facilities still under construction, said Francois Morin, China director for the World Nuclear Association. The country’s reactor construction timelines have ranged from five to seven years, which means the target of 110 gigawatts is unlikely to be met until a few years after the 2030 deadline, he said.
Longer term, the bigger concern is that the reactor build-out is expanding more slowly than power demand, which has left nuclear’s portion of total generation mostly in decline over the last few years and lower than it was in 2021, Morin said.
The share was less than 5% last year, which suggests it may be too ambitious to expect that nuclear can deliver 10% of China’s electricity by 2035, he said.
On the Wire
China’s consumer price growth accelerated to the quickest in over three years and factory deflation moderated again, after a rally in energy markets and as household spending boomed during a later-than-usual Lunar New Year holiday.
Hours after Donald Trump threatened to expand strikes on Iran and hit Beijing’s strategic partner “very hard,” China’s top diplomat took the stage before the world’s press and declared this could be a defining year for US-China ties.
Strong quarterly results expected from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. may widen its market-capitalization lead over electric-vehicle maker BYD Co., reinforcing the companies’ diverging trajectories.
China’s fuel export curbs seek to promote its energy security, yet costlier crude and sluggish demand are crushing refining margins, spelling trouble for its small, independent oil refiners, said Bloomberg Intelligence.
While China has a high exposure to Middle East energy, the impact of last week’s oil price surge on its economy is likely to be contained, economists say.
China’s central bank bought more gold in February, extending its streak of purchasing to 16 months.
This Week’s Diary
(All times Beijing)
Monday, March 9:
- China’s Feb. inflation data, 09:30
- China to release Feb. aggregate finance & money supply data by March 15
- EARNINGS: CATL
Tuesday, March 10:
- China’s Jan.-Feb. trade balance and 1st batch of trade data, ~11:00
- Crude oil, natural gas & coal imports; oil products imports & exports
- Iron ore, copper & steel imports; steel, aluminum & rare earth exports
- Soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat imports; fertilizer exports
- China’s monthly CASDE crop supply-demand report
Wednesday, March 11:
- CCTD’s weekly online briefing on coal markets, 15:00
- CSIA’s weekly polysilicon price assessment
Thursday, March 12:
- CSIA’s weekly solar wafer price assessment
Friday, March 13:
- China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
- SHFE’s weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30
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