China Dampens Green Hopes of an Early Peak in Carbon Emissions

(Bloomberg) -- China’s top energy officials downplayed growing speculation that the country’s carbon emissions have already peaked years ahead of target, saying on Thursday that just meeting the goal on time still required “great efforts.”

While China is confident that it will achieve its goal of hitting peak emissions before 2030, domestic energy demand is still growing and the outlook is uncertain, said Song Wen, head of law and institutional reform at the National Energy Administration. Song was responding to a question about whether surging clean-power generation had helped the world’s top polluter turn a corner.

“We should not forget that China is still a developing country, pursuing modernization for a huge population,” she said at a press briefing to mark the release of a new publication highlighting the country’s rapid energy transition. “Great efforts are still needed to achieve the goals of peak carbon and carbon neutrality.”

Surging generation from solar farms and hydroelectric dams this summer has led to reduced output from fossil fuel power plants, China’s largest source of greenhouse gases. The next two biggest sectors, steel and cement, are also seeing falling production amid a prolonged real estate slump. Electric vehicles, meanwhile, are beginning to erode gasoline consumption after years of expansion. 

The clean energy boom means a structural decline may have already begun this year, Lauri Myllyvirta, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said in a report for Carbon Brief this month — so long as renewables installations continue apace and growth in power demand remains restrained.

Given the rapid changes on the ground, Chinese officials have been discussing new targets as part of the country’s nationally determined contributions under the UN climate process, said Li Chuangjun, head of NEA’s renewable energy department. 

Last month, China’s combined solar and wind capacity topped 1,200 gigawatts, well in advance of President Xi Jinping’s 2030 target.

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