New COP28 Draft Demands Swifter Fossil Fuel Transition

(Bloomberg) -- Climate negotiators in Dubai were huddling early Wednesday on a draft agreement calling on nations to swiftly transition away from using fossil fuels, as they neared the end of talks meant to avert the worst consequences of global warming.  

The compromise text represents a more forceful assertion of the world’s commitment to cutting greenhouse gas emissions while steering clear of polarizing promises to “phase out” fossil fuels that had drawn fire from Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing nations. 

This isn’t a final text. Sultan Al Jaber, the COP28 president, was meeting behind closed doors with country negotiators, including those from Saudi Arabia, to go over the blueprint and make edits before unveiling a final proposal early Wednesday morning. 

A spokesperson for the COP28 presidency said the draft was not official. 

The text had already gotten stronger on fossil fuels and “is moving in the right direction,” US climate envoy John Kerry proclaimed, before he was whisked away from a closed-door huddle with representatives from the UK, Norway, Canada and Australia. COP28 Chief Executive Officer Adnan Amin, a key lieutenant of the summit’s president, told Bloomberg News that negotiators were on the cusp of a deal. And Canadian climate minister Steven Guilbeault said he was “encouraged – much more than yesterday.”

The text was more declarative than an earlier version released Monday evening, which didn’t commit countries to specific steps such as tripling renewable power and boosting efficiency — and instead presented them as options they “could” take. The draft under discussion Tuesday night says nations “should” take those steps instead. 

That change is likely to overcome the opposition of many countries because it strengthens the push to reduce emissions.

At the same time, it recognizes that countries should chart their own paths “in a nationally determined manner,” a key concession. It also makes clear that countries’ work to help the world make “deep, rapid and sustained reductions” in greenhouse gas emissions should be based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities.  

The key change in the draft is a shift from an earlier option of “reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner.” The new document would instead call on countries to start “transitioning away from fossil fuels in our energy systems, beginning in this decade, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”

Nations would agree that there is a “need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in GHG emissions in line with 1.5C pathways” — a reference to a Paris Agreement target that was sought by the US, EU and small island nations. 

There are also concessions to developing countries, which sought help growing their economies while paring greenhouse gas emissions. The draft emphasizes the need for finance and technology transfer as “critical enablers of climate action.”

At the same time, it would call on countries to rapidly phase down unabated coal — where emissions from its use are not captured. That’s similar to a previous 2021 declaration, but goes further by urging nations to limit the “permitting of new and unabated coal power generation” as well.

Here is a key excerpt from the document:

27. Recognizes the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in GHG emissions in line with 1.5C pathways and calls upon Parties to contribute to global efforts, in a nationally determined manner, taking into account the principles and provisions of the Paris Agreement and should take actions that include, inter alia:

(a) Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030;

(b) Rapidly phasing down unabated coal and limiting the permitting of new and unabated coal power generation;

(c) Accelerating efforts globally towards net zero emissions energy systems, utilizing zero and low carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century;

(d) Transitioning away from fossil fuels in our energy systems, beginning in this decade, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science;

(e) Accelerating zero and low emissions technologies, including, inter alia, renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies, such as carbon capture and utilization and storage particularly in hard to abate sectors, and low carbon hydrogen production, so as to enhance efforts towards substitution of unabated fossil fuels in energy systems.

(f) Accelerating and substantially reducing non-CO2 emissions, including, in particular, methane emissions globally by 2030;

(g) Accelerating emissions reductions from road transport through a range of pathways, including development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero emission vehicles;

(h) Phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible;

(Updates with further draft text details from 10th paragraph)

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