COP28 Latest: Summit Hailed as ‘Turning Point’ in Climate Fight

(Bloomberg) -- A global deal to transition away from fossil fuels that was adopted within minutes of the start of the final session of the COP28 summit is being viewed as a historic moment for climate progress in nearly three decades of the UN talks.

“This COP is one of those key turning points and there haven’t been that many of those,” said Germany’s climate envoy Jennifer Morgan on Wednesday after COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber brought the gavel down to confirm the deal.

Read full story: COP28 Ends With Deal on Transition Away From Fossil Fuels

The decision is an important marker in the global direction of travel toward a low-carbon energy system. The text also includes agreements to triple the deployment of renewable power and double the rate of efficiency gains by the end of the decade. A separate COP28 agreement, reached earlier, makes operations a hard-fought fund for addressing the losses and damages of climate change.

“An agreement is only as good as its implementation. We are what we do, not what we say,” Al Jaber said. “We must take the steps necessary to turn this agreement into tangible actions.”

The agreement required buy-in from Saudi Arabia and some other oil producers, which had pushed back on the idea of phasing down or phasing out fossil fuels. After some concessions, such as using the phrase “transitioning away” instead, the deal was clinched.

(All times in Dubai.)

COP28 Has Failed to Deliver Finance for the Global South, CEEW Says (2:34 p.m.)

Among the countries that were disappointed with the outcome, many developing countries raised the issue of the lack of finance to meet the more ambitious goals set out in the COP28 deal known as the UAE Consensus. “This COP has largely disappointed on all fronts,” said Arunabha Ghosh, chief executive of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water. Specifically he called out the “failure to instate effective financial mechanisms, obliging historical emitters to contribute.”

Carbon Markets Are Still in Limbo (1:30 p.m.)

The approval of rules to kick-start a new UN-overseen carbon market was delayed on Wednesday, creating disappointment for investors who were looking for further clarity. “We missed an opportunity” to “set a high bar on environmental integrity, safeguards, and human rights,” said Andrea Bonzanni, international policy director at the International Emissions Trading Association. 

This Is a Turning Point, Germany’s Morgan Says (1:15 p.m.)

Germany’s climate envoy Jennifer Morgan told Bloomberg News the COP28 agreement is “historic,” noting its inclusion of a target to triple renwable energy capacity. “Just a few years ago we couldn’t even get the word renewable in a text,” she said in an interview after leaving the summit’s plenary session.

“This COP is one of those key turning points and there haven’t been that many of those,” she said. “It provides more clear guidance on economic actors than before. We’ve gone from the very important temperature goal to a net zero goal to specific sectoral, quantitative targets in renewable energy and energy efficiency. And a clear signal of that transition away from fossil fuels, and that makes this a very special and significant COP.”

Colombia Calls for Cuts in Fossil Fuel Output (1:10 p.m.)

Colombia’s environment minister Susana Muhamad said that without sufficient economic support, countries would be likely to choose a transport system using dirtier transitional fuels, delaying the transition by 15 years. She added that fossil fuel output needs to be reduced.

“The production of fossil fuels needs to start being reduced,” she said. “We need to start reducing it in order to have a transition.”

Mixed Message About Gas, NRDC Says (12:05 p.m.)

The UAE Consensus, as it’s now called, may provide a concession to those countries that want to continue to rely on gas as a bridging fuel, even as it calls for a shift away from fossil fuels.

Paragraph 28 of the agreement “recognizes that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security.”

the Natural Resources Defense Council’s Jake Schmidt said the text sends a mixed message about the role of fossil gas, but limits its use.

“One cannot transition forever. And since it sits within the overall commitment to zero out fossil fuels by 2050 in the energy system, any expansion of fossil gas will come up against a hard reality – that its lifespan is severely limited and may become a stranded asset in a world transitioning away from fossil fuels,” he said.

COP28 Deal Sending ‘Signal’ to Boardrooms (12:00 p.m.)

The decision in Dubai is set to resonate in boardrooms across the world — potentially telegraphing the decline of fossil fuels and informing decisions executives make about investing in new coal, oil and gas projects.

The language pushing a decline in fossil fuel use will send “a signal” that “the world is now thinking about it” and change the way investors assess the risk of those ventures, said Jonathan Pershing, environment program director at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and a veteran US climate negotiator.

The text on fossil fuels goes beyond previous declarations that focused only on the use of coal.

David Waskow, director of the World Resources Institute’s climate initiative, said it makes a new path clear to the private sector. “This sends important signals to markets — to the private sector — about the direction of travel,” he said Wednesday.

An ‘Historic’ COP (11:30 a.m.)

“When the dust settles and dawn breaks, this will be seen as one of the most historic COPs,” said Avinash Persaud, special climate envoy to the prime minister of Barbados.

He said achievements at COP28 include operationalizing a loss and damage fund, recapitalizing the Green Climate Fund and orchestrating an international climate finance system that prepares for new levies alongside emboldened development banks and new private sector flows. 

“Today, we have committed to triple renewable investments and have a just transition from fossil fuels,” he says.

Fossil Fuel Transition Rapidly Adopted (11.15 a.m.)

To huge rounds of applause, Al Jaber quickly gaveled through the decision on the Global Stocktake, which promises to transition away from fossil fuels.

“We should be proud of our historic achievement,” he says in a speech. “The world needed to find a new way. By following our north star, we have found that new path.”

“We have delivered a comprehensive response to the global stocktake and all other mandates, together, we have confronted the realities and sent the world in the right direction.”

Canada’s Guilbeault Says COP28 Deal Could Be ‘Historic’ (10:30 a.m.)

Canada’s climate minister Steven Guilbeault said the new text “could amount to a historic agreement” as it addresses the impacts of polluting and harmful energy sources, and shapes a path towards alternatives

“The package is not perfect, no UN text is,” he said in a statement. “But, as someone who has been in this space for more than 20 years, I see a vision we can rally around to keep 1.5C within reach and protect people and ecosystems.”

Guilbeault said the package is “a call to action” to all countries, cities, provinces, indigenous nations, businesses and citizens.

“The next two years are of highest importance to step up our efforts on climate, adaptation and nature,” he said. “Hard work remains.”

Thumbs-Up From China’s Climate Envoy (10:45 a.m)

China’s climate envoy Xie Zhenua walked in to the plenary that is about to start, beaming and with thumbs up. He told reporters he was happy about the latest text.

This could be his last COP, at least on behalf of the Beijing government. Xie, 74, has become a fixture of global climate diplomacy for more than a decade, but will retire after COP28. He may have got his wish to end on a high.

New Draft Calls for Economy-Wide Emissions Cuts (10:15 a.m.) 

The proposed agreement makes clear — for the very first time — that countries’ Paris Agreement pledges should set “ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets” that cover all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories. One adviser noted that while the provision is decidedly unglamorous, it’s hugely significant for driving more aggressive action that goes far beyond the energy sector and carbon dioxide.

Countries’ formal emission-cutting pledges, known as nationally determined contributions, should be “aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5C, as informed by the latest science, in the light of different national circumstances,” under the draft agreement. Notably, the call for higher ambition is not just reserved for developed countries, but all nations, keeping in mind their varying circumstances.

The language neatly mirrors a call by the world’s top two emitters — China and the US — who united weeks before the summit in asserting that the next round of pledges, for 2035, should be economy-wide, bringing in all greenhouse gases and reflecting reductions aligned with Paris temperature goals.

Coal May Have Been Sacrificed for Fossil Fuel Win (09:40 a.m.)

The new COP28 proposal would have countries “accelerating efforts towards the phase down of unabated coal power” — a shift from Monday’s version that envisioned “rapidly phasing down unabated coal and limitations on permitting new and unabated coal power generation.”

US negotiators had fought for language that singled out coal, and the earlier iteration clearly targeted the permitting of new plants using the fuel — wording that took a swipe at China, India and other countries. Dropping that permitting piece is seen as a possible sop for India that could bring it on board with broader language on fossil fuels. 

Saudis Likely to Accept Fossil Fuel Transition (9:09 a.m.)

The transition away from fossil fuels is acceptable for Saudi Arabia because it allows them flexibility on the path they need to take to cut emissions, a person familiar with the kingdom’s position said. Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman was personally involved in negotiations and was seen walking into the presidency’s office late last night in Dubai’s Expo center.

Will China, India Agree to Net Zero by 2050? (8:53 a.m.)

A key paragraph in the new draft text commits countries to transitioning away from fossil fuels “so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”. 

But that will be unacceptable to many key countries, including China and India that have set net zero targets for post mid-century. China aims for it in 2060 and India in 2070. So would they agree to the wording in the new draft? That will be worth watching when countries speak at the plenary, which is scheduled for 10am.

‘Could’ No Longer in Fossil Fuel Text (8:37 a.m.)

There’s always a fight over modal verbs at COP, and this year it’s over how strongly countries should be compelled to act on fossil fuels.

An earlier version of the text, released Monday, had been panned by the US, EU, and other nations, for presenting a mere menu of options they “could” take to cut greenhouse gases.  

The new proposal deletes “could” and “calls on” countries to contribute to an array of specified “global efforts,” including tripling renewable energy capacity globally, doubling the global average annual rate of efficiency improvements by 2030 and “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.”

All Eyes on a Fight on the Plenary Floor (8.11 a.m.)

While the deal currently contains much stronger language on moving away from fossil fuels, the big fight may well lie ahead.

Any standoff will likely take place at a plenary gathering of ministers scheduled for 10 a.m. — a start time that is likely to be delayed. That’s where any opponents will make one final push to make their voices heard by demanding last-minute revisions to the text.

In Glasgow at COP26, India managed to shift language around an “unabated” coal phase out to the weaker “phase down” phrasing, in an intervention that was seen as also representing a bigger polluter, China. The question is whether Saudi Arabia or its peers will be willing to take an equally public stance as key opponents to a transition away from fossil fuels.

Methane Set to Receive Mention for First Time (8:06 a.m.)

Under the proposed text, countries would for the first time be agreeing to go beyond simply targeting CO2, broadening their work to include other greenhouse gases. The deal would call on nations to accelerate and substantially reduce those emissions globally, “including in particular methane emissions by 2030.”

That’s a recognition of the heat-trapping potential of methane, fluorinated gases and nitrous oxide — which are far more potent than carbon dioxide when it comes to driving temperatures higher. It’s also a sign of how voluntary deals unveiled on the sidelines of the UN climate summits can eventually find their way into negotiated text. The methane language emerges from a voluntary global methane pledge the EU and US launched two years ago that has now enrolled more than 150 countries as members.

However, the language is softer than an earlier option considered by negotiators, which would have laid out specific emissions-cutting targets, including an at least 30% reduction in methane by the end of the decade and a 40% reduction by 2035.

NGO Reactions Filter In (7.42 a.m.)

The Natural Resources Defense Council, a climate non-profit, said the mention of fossil fuels in the latest text was much stronger than early versions, sending a signal that a century dominated by dirty energy is rapidly coming to an end. 

The text points to the end goal for carbon as “zero by 2050” and demands that the world accelerates action “in this critical decade.” 

NRDC said that while the wording could be still reinforced to include all fossil fuels — not just those in the energy system – the signal is clear that the end of the fossil-fuel era has come.

Developing Countries Win Concessions (7.36 a.m.)

The COP28 presidency has looked to give emerging nations a number of wins to get a final agreement over the line.

In addition to allowing for different transition pathways, the proposal emphasizes that finance and technology transfer are “critical enablers of climate action.” That yields to a push from developing economies struggling to balance the need to grow their economies with the need to slash emissions.

Wealthier nations also came in for criticism over progress thus far.

“Parties and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had earlier indicated that developed countries must reduce emissions by 25–40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020,” the text says. “Which was not achieved.”

Countries Have Different Transition Pathways in Draft Deal (7.25 a.m.)

The key change in the current draft is a shift away from “reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner” in a key section of the text. 

Instead, the new document calls on countries to start “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”

Nations voting in favor of this version would agree that there is a “need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5C pathways.” They would be called upon to take a variety of “steps” to address them, charting their own paths “in a nationally determined manner.”

The phrasing reflects a principle that countries have common but differentiated responsibilities when it comes to addressing climate change.

New Draft Calls for Fossil Fuel Transition (7:09 a.m.)

The latest draft deal, likely the one the COP28 Presidency tries to take into the final plenary, calls for a transition away from fossil fuels to enable the world to reach net zero by 2050. It’s a stronger text than Monday’s draft but could yet face a last-minute Saudi objection.

The text also added a line saying that transitional fuels — which, for developing nations include gas — can play a role in the shift away from carbon. A line on limiting new coal-power generation was omitted, but countries are called upon to accelerate the phase-down of unabated use of the dirty fuel.

UN Carbon Market at Risk as COP28 Split on Rules (5.49 a.m.)

The fate of a United Nations-overseen emissions market that could help channel climate finance to poor countries is in doubt as nations at the COP28 conference are at odds over its rules.

The European Union and some Latin American countries rejected recommendations on the functioning of the mechanism. An attempt last night failed to secure a compromise, according to people with knowledge of the matter. A lack of endorsement of the standards proposed by the market’s supervisory body would mean a delay in making the market operational and no clarity on the next steps.

At stake is a mechanism enabled by the Paris Agreement that would allow companies compensate for some pollution at home by investing in projects in developing countries to cut emissions or remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Saudi Oil Minister Arrives to Meet COP28 Officials (12:30 a.m.)

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman arrived at the presidency shortly after midnight. He walked past reporters, listening to an aide reading from a mobile phone. This is an important meeting — if Saudi Arabia agrees to something close to the proposed draft, we’re pretty close to the end.

New COP28 Draft Demands Swifter Fossil Fuel Transition (12:12 a.m.)

A copy of the compromise text under discussion was seen by Bloomberg News. It represents a more forceful assertion of the world’s commitment to cutting greenhouse gas emissions while steering clear of polarizing promises to “phase out” fossil fuels that had drawn fire from Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing nations. 

India Suggests Fossil Fuel Language Needs Caveats (10:03 p.m.)

India’s chief negotiator Naresh Pal Gangwar met the COP28 presidency as part of the BASIC group, alongside China, South Africa and Brazil. On fossil fuel language, he said they suggested that the presidency must take into consideration countries’ “different circumstances” and varying stages of economic development.

COP President Meetings Will Continue Until 3 a.m. (9:38 p.m.)

“Overnight and throughout today, the COP28 president and his team have been engaging in extensive consultations with a wide representation of negotiating groups and parties,” a COP28 spokesperson said in a statement. “This is to ensure everyone is heard, and all views are considered. He is determined to deliver a version of the text that has the support of all parties. Consultations will continue until 03:00AM GST.” 

Kerry Says New Deal Text Is Stronger on Fossil Fuels (9:23 p.m.)

US climate envoy John Kerry said “progress is moving in the right direction” as he emerged from a meeting with other key ministers and the UAE presidency minutes ago. The text had already been made stronger on fossil fuels, he said, and there had been “a lot of good effort” on financial commitments.

The text is “in a very different place from where we were yesterday, and it reflects 

the consultative process,” Kerry told reporters. “People have listened very carefully and there’s a lot of good faith on the table right now — people trying to move to a better place.”

Kerry said the talks were setting up a potential release of the next draft “in the wee hours of the night.”

Canada Seemed Pleased by the Direction of Talks (9:06 p.m.)

Canadian climate minister Steven Guilbeault said that the 1.5C temperature target laid out by the Paris Agreement was “absolutely” still alive after he left a meeting with COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber.

“We keep 1.5C within reach,” he told reporters. “I leave the meeting encouraged. Much more than yesterday.”

Norway’s Minister Steps Out of UNFCCC Office in Upbeat Mood (8:52 p.m.)

Walking out of the UNFCCC pavilion Norway’s Foreign Affairs Minister Espen Barth Eide said discussions are “positively progressive.”

Earlier this evening, the minister told Bloomberg News there are still major items to agree upon. “There is serious work going on to make a text we can commit to, with stronger language on mitigation and adaptation, but it’s not done — there will be stronger language on adaptation and mitigation, but exactly what it is we’ll have to see,” he said.

Long Night Expected at Expo City, Despite Deal Optimism (8:45 p.m.)

Even if a deal is done in the next hour or so, it doesn’t necessarily mean COP28 will be able to wrap up tonight. A new text needs to be written, approved by lawyers and translated into five languages. Then there’s a lot of bureaucracy on the plenary floor that needs to be agreed before negotiators can even start to talk about the crucial fossil fuel wording.

UK Minister’s Trip Home Hasn’t Sat Well With Tory Opponents (8:38 p.m.) 

The UK government has been under criticism at home today after Graham Stuart, the minister responsible for COP, flew home. Instead, Richard Benyon a minister in both the environment department and foreign office, was present at a key huddle of ministers with Kerry as talks neared to a close.

US Climate Envoy Says He’s Working on a Stronger Deal (8:20 p.m.)

US climate envoy John Kerry struck an optimistic tone before heading into a meeting in the COP presidency office with ministers from Canada, Japan, Norway and other nations.

“We’re working very hard for that,” he said, referring to a stronger deal.

“I’m confident that we are going to see a different text,” he told Bloomberg News. “But, you know, we are working on that. I’m hopeful. I really am. Hopeful.” 

Just before going into the meeting, ministers gathered for an impromptu huddle. Kerry smiled as he spoke to the assembled negotiators, at one point slapping two on the back. Music from a nearby restaurant thrummed in the background.   

COP28 CEO Amin Says We’re on Cusp of a Deal (8:15 p.m.)

There’s a sudden mood of optimism around Expo City. COP28 CEO Adnan Amin, a key lieutenant of the summit’s president, Sultan Al Jaber, just told Bloomberg we’re on the cusp of a deal. Meanwhile, a big group of ministers is waiting outside the presidency office for a briefing.

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