COP Summit Overruns as Negotiators Push for Fossil Fuel Deal

(Bloomberg) -- The COP28 climate talks in Dubai ran into overtime as negotiators worked on a new draft deal that would bridge the divide between those demanding the phase out of fossil fuels and a coalition of oil exporters and developing countries adamantly opposed to the idea.

Diplomats are now running between bilateral meetings as the host, the United Arab Emirates, tries to broker a new draft, expected this evening. Negotiators will then scrutinize every word — likely through the night — in an attempt to reach a consensus.

“We wanted the draft to spark conversations and that’s what’s happened,” Majid Al-Suwaidi, director general of COP28, said in a briefing. “What we’ve seen since is that the parties have deeply held and deeply split views, especially on the language around fossil fuels.”

A 21-page document released Monday pitched a cut in consumption and production of fossil fuels the UAE tried to craft a compromise. The US and the European Union were among those that opposed that version, saying it didn’t go far enough with a phase out of polluting energy, and instead allows nations loopholes and opt-outs.

Sultan Al Jaber, the Emirati oil executive running COP28, has the task of getting almost 200 countries to agree to a text that will govern the global fight against climate change. A broad coalition wants stronger language calling for the phase out of fossil fuels, but that’s adamantly opposed by Saudi Arabia, other OPEC+ nations and some developing nations. 

“Asking Nigeria to phase out fossil fuels or indeed Africa to phase out fossil fuels is asking us to stop breathing without life support,”  State Minister of the Environment Iziaq Kunle Salako said on behalf of Africa’s biggest economy and leading OPEC+ producer. “It is not acceptable.”

The first text proposed a “just” and “orderly” reduction of fossil fuel use — adjectives designed to appease more cautious countries. But it presented those reductions, along with boosting efficiency and renewable power, as merely options. 

In a meeting of lead negotiators late Monday, US climate envoy John Kerry said the proposed text doesn’t meet the moment. A State Department spokesperson said the fossil fuel language needed to be “substantially strengthened.”

European officials may be more willing to fight for stronger language urging countries to reduce fossil fuels in line with keeping warming to the 1.5C goal than they were last year, when a fund for climate loss and damage was the main issue in play. They believe that they have a “super majority” of countries willing to push for such an outcome in the face of around 18 nations in Saudi Arabia’s blocking coalition, according to people familiar with the matter.

COP agreements require consensus.

“We have made progress, but we still have a lot to do,” Al Jaber told a plenary session of the summit after the first draft was published Monday. “You know what remains to be agreed, and you know I want you to develop the highest ambition on all items, including on fossil fuel language.”

The new draft deal will arrive hours after the summit’s scheduled 11 a.m. close. 

Fossil Fuel Language   

For some, the inclusion of fossil fuels in the draft text and getting countries like Saudi Arabia, whose economies depend heavily on oil, engaged in discussions about it already goes a long way. 

But that praise was mixed with pushback from others for stronger action, showing an agreement was some way off. 

“The Republic of the Marshall Islands did not come here to sign our death warrant,” said John Silk, head of delegation for the Marshall Islands, a nation at risk from rising sea levels.  “What we have seen today is unacceptable. We will not go silently to our watery graves.”

The text also presents some actions — from tripling renewables to reducing the consumption and production of fossil fuels — as options, rather than prescribed steps.

Those items in the draft text are preceded by the phrase: “take actions that could include.” That qualifier “makes all the listed actions optional for nations,” said Rachel Cleetus, policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists. The text is “extremely disappointing, concerning, and nowhere close to the level of ambition people around the world deserve,” she said.

Other key elements of the draft included the first agreement to go beyond carbon dioxide by targeting methane and other potent greenhouse gases with substantial reductions by 2030. That follows a voluntary pledge for a 30% global reduction in methane first introduced by the US and EU two years ago. The move is significant because methane, fluorinated gases and nitrous oxide are far more powerful at warming the earth’s temperature.

A framework on how to adapt to climate change — known as the global goal on adaptation — was given stronger references to finance, addressing the need to close the gap in funding.

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