Global nuclear capacity needs to double by 2050 to reach net-zero targets

Nuclear power can help countries securely transition to energy systems dominated by renewables, but global nuclear power capacity needs to double by 2050 to reach net-zero emissions targets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report published on Thursday.

Building sustainable and clean energy systems will be harder, riskier and more expensive without nuclear power, the IEA contended in the special report, Nuclear power and secure energy transitions: From today’s challenges to tomorrow’s clean energy systems.

Nuclear energy is the second largest source of low emissions power after hydropower, with nuclear plants in 32 countries. About 63% of the current nuclear generating capacity comes from plants that are more than 30 years old, the IEA said.

Countries that choose to continue or increase their use of nuclear power can reduce their carbon dioxide emissions and enable electricity systems to integrate higher shares of solar and wind power, the report said.

This is increasingly evident among advanced and emerging economies that have recently announced energy strategies with substantial roles for nuclear power as well as considerable financial incentives to invest in it.

“In today’s context of the global energy crisis, skyrocketing fossil fuel prices, energy security challenges and ambitious climate commitments, I believe nuclear power has a unique opportunity to stage a comeback,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.

“However, a new era for nuclear power is by no means guaranteed. It will depend on governments putting in place robust policies to ensure safe and sustainable operation of nuclear plants for years to come – and to mobilise the necessary investments including in new technologies,” he said.

“And the nuclear industry must quickly address the issues of cost overruns and project delays that have bedevilled the construction of new plants in advanced economies. As a result, advanced economies have lost market leadership, as 27 out of 31 reactors that started construction since 2017 are Russian or Chinese designs,” Dr Birol added.

According to the IEA’s global pathway to reach Net Zero Emissions by 2050, nuclear power doubles between 2020 and 2050, with construction of new plants needed in all countries that are open to the technology. Even so, by mid-century, nuclear only accounts for 8% of the global power mix, which is dominated by renewables.

Despite moves to extend the lifetimes of some existing plants, the nuclear fleet operating in advanced economies could shrink by one-third by 2030 without further efforts, the report said. While plant lifetime extensions require substantial investment, they generally yield a cost of electricity that is competitive with wind and solar in most regions, the agency observed.

A total of 19 countries currently have nuclear reactors under construction, demonstrating the recent momentum behind nuclear power that is likely to be further stimulated by recent spikes in oil, gas and electricity prices, the report said.