Wind power capacity set to grow by 9 percent to 2030

Global wind power capacity is expected to grow at a cumulative annualised growth rate (CAGR) of 9 percent by 2030, hitting over 1,756 gigawatts (GW), according to a report Wood Mackenzie.

Wood Mackenzie’s Q4 forecast reported a 69-GW increase in new capacity additions globally compared to the previous quarter’s outlook until the end of the decade.

China has provided a major uplift to the latest forecast, said the company, but needs to add 48 GW additional capacity to 10-year outlook.

“Acute demand for power along China’s coastline triggered a 13-GW upgrade in the offshore wind sector, largely concentrated from 2023 to 2026. The country’s commitment to net zero emissions is expected to drive 88 GW of additional offshore wind capacity between 2021 and 2030,” said Wood Mackenzie research director Luke Lewandowski.

The country’s 48-GW quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) upgrade accounts for nearly 70 percent of the increase to the global 10-year outlook.

“Rapid growth in power demand driven by China’s industrial sector and the recent power shortage in September sparked China’s determination to accelerate the development of renewable energy. Hence, we have upgraded our China wind power capacity outlook. The market is expected to add 458 GW this decade and will continue to lead the global rankings in terms of new capacity added,” said Lewandowski.

Wood Mackenzie said they have made minimal adjustments in the quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) outlook for the Middle East and Africa as the advancement of wind builds in South Africa, Oman, Israel, and Egypt indicates that the development is on pace with the forecast.

But has made adjustments in the QoQ outlook within the US and Europe combined to contribute 22 GW of additional capacity.

“An expectation that Congress passes a 100 percent Production Tax Credit extension yields a QoQ upgrade of nearly 12 GW in the US, primarily impacting the 2026 to 2030 period when annual capacity additions will average 18 GW if grid investments materialise,” said the consultancy firm.

The US is ranked second to China in terms of global new capacity within this decade, with 150 GW of capacity addition.

Fo south Europe’s outlook, the company upgraded the region to a 3.3-GW QoQ, due primarily to wind developers winning the entirety of a 1.1-GW tech-neutral allotment in October, Mackenzie added.