Oil Steadies at End of Volatile Week as US and Iran Keep Talking
(Bloomberg) -- Oil steadied at the end of a bumpy week, as talks between the US and Iran continued despite a flare-up in fighting that drove a steep drop in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent traded above $76 a barrel after losing more than 2% on Thursday, while West Texas Intermediate was near $72. Technical talks between the two sides are continuing, according to a US official, who said Washington was still committed to finding a solution. The status of an earlier truce remained unclear after President Donald Trump said the deal was over.
Following a spate of attacks on vessels in Hormuz, US forces hit targets in the Islamic Republic over two days this week, prompting retaliatory strikes by Tehran on American bases in the region. Still, the two sides have stopped short of a return to all-out war, and some stipulations of their interim deal — which has not yet been formally scrapped — are still being observed.
Oil remains higher for the week, with observed transits through Hormuz reduced substantially by the hostilities. Traders will be monitoring output and sales from Persian Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, which is due to issue monthly allocations to customers shortly. In addition, they’ll scour a monthly report from the International Energy Agency later Friday for insights.
“The market appears to be viewing the latest US-Iran tensions as a challenge to the ceasefire process rather than a complete collapse,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy for ING Groep NV in Singapore. “Reports of continued talks between Washington and Tehran are also helping to reassure the market that diplomacy remains the preferred path.”
Traffic in Hormuz appeared to have ground to a near halt on Thursday, and remained thin on Friday, according to tracking data. No large commodity ships were seen transiting, although an empty, Greek-owned supertanker re-emerged inside the gulf after pushing through the chokepoint.
US Central Command said “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz,” according to a post on X. Since May, American forces helped more than 800 vessels transit the waterway, it added. The conduit links Gulf producers to global markets, and its standing has been one of the major sticking points in the US-Iran war, with Tehran seeking to exercise greater control over traffic.
“While tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen in recent days, it remains above pre-MoU levels, which will provide some comfort to the market,” said Patterson, referring to the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran that was agreed in June.
The IEA, the adviser to major economies, is due to issue its monthly deep-dive report into market conditions at 10 a.m. in Paris. Last month, it warned that the Iran war’s impact on oil demand would be much deeper than it previously anticipated, while also flagging a renewed glut next year.
Crude’s bumpy week is reflected in shifts in Brent’s prompt spread, which tracks the difference between its two nearest contracts. On Monday, the widely-followed metric was 25 cents a barrel in contango, a bearish pattern; in the midweek session, it flipped to 45 cents in backwardation, the opposite arrangement; and on Friday it was essentially level.
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