OPEC+ completes rollback of oil production cuts with September hike
OPEC+ has agreed to raise oil production quotas for the sixth consecutive month by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September, completing the phased rollback of the voluntary supply cuts introduced in 2023. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman agreed to the latest adjustment via a virtual meeting on Sunday.
The raised quotas restore the 1.65 million bpd of supply OPEC+ had voluntarily removed from the market, with the seven producers now returning to their original production levels before the additional voluntary cuts were introduced in April 2023.
“The seven OPEC+ countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation,” OPEC+ said in a statement.
However, around 2 million bpd of separate OPEC+ production cuts dating back to 2022 remain in place and are currently scheduled to run until the end of 2026.
Conflicts hindering increased supplies
The return of OPEC+ production follows heightened geopolitical tensions that are limiting oil supplies. Export disruptions affecting Gulf producers, Russia, and Kazakhstan amid regional conflicts have also meant that much of the additional supply approved by OPEC+ this year has yet to reach the market.
The organisation’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) also expressed concerns “regarding attacks on energy infrastructure,” adding that “restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time, thereby affecting overall supply availability.”
The attacks on energy infrastructure have impacted supplies, even as the group steadily raised its official production targets. It remains to be seen whether OPEC+ will continue raising output during the rest of 2026 or pause after September.
Jorge Leon, Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, said the completion of the restoration programme increases the likelihood of a pause later this year.
“OPEC+ has finished unwinding its voluntary cuts. The next challenge is managing the surplus that could emerge as export flows normalise,” Leon said.
“Having completed the restoration campaign, OPEC+ has little incentive to rush into further supply changes. Our base case is a fourth-quarter pause while the group prepares for the 2027 quota negotiations.”
The seven producers are scheduled to meet again on 6 September to review market conditions.
Meanwhile, the JMMC said it had reviewed May and June production data and noted overall conformity among OPEC and non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation.
The JMMC said it would continue monitoring the situation and compliance with existing production commitments, with its next meeting scheduled for 4 October.
