Europe’s Key Winter Forecast Affirms Unseasonably Warm Outlook

(Bloomberg) -- The year’s most-closely watched seasonal forecast firmed up expectations that Europe is heading for a significantly warmer winter than normal, likely reducing the need for heating fuels over the coming moths. 

Data generated by the Copernicus Climate Change Service signals a minimum 50% probability that most of Europe will experience well-above average temperatures between December and February. The Balkans, Italy and the Iberian peninsula have a 60% to 70% chance of exceeding median historical temperatures over the past three decades. 

On Friday, scientists at Copernicus updated their seasonal outlook, used by farmers, insurers and utilities to help adapt to a warming planet. Abnormally high temperatures could depress natural gas prices heading into winter, providing some relief to Europeans after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the market to record highs last year. 

With storage depots 99.6% full, the forecast could further ease the pressure on energy-intensive European industries, which have struggled to remain competitive amid surging gas prices. 

The Copernicus data follows a spate of reports showing the past 12 months have been the hottest on record, with 99% of the world’s population experiencing above-average warmth. 

Average temperatures between the start of November 2022 and through October this year were 1.32C (2.4F) above pre-industrial levels, eclipsing a previous 12-month record set from October 2015 to September 2016, analysis by the non-profit Climate Central found.

The Copernicus program uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world for its monthly and seasonal forecasts. Along with the European Space Agency, Copernicus plays a central role in the European Union’s €16 billion ($17.1 billion) effort to get ahead of climate change through accurate forecasting. It’s already the world’s biggest provider of climate data.

Data also suggest that much of northern, central and southern Europe has a 40% to 50% chance of significantly higher precipitation than usual between December and February. 

The western US has greater than a 50% probability of experiencing significantly higher temperatures this winter, with greater uncertainty in the northeast. Southeast states have a 60% to 70% chance of well-above average precipitation between December and February. 

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