Atlantic Basin Primed for a Below-Average 2023 Hurricane Season

(Bloomberg) -- Across the Atlantic, 13 named storms may form this year in an expected below-average hurricane season with the ocean’s fury held back, in part, by conditions in the Pacific. 

Six could become hurricanes, and of those two may reach major status with winds of 111 miles (179 kilometers) per hour or more, by the time the six-month Atlantic season ends on Nov. 30, according to Colorado State University’s annual forecast. 

A possible Pacific El Nino would bring more wind shear across the Atlantic cutting back on the number of storms during the season’s peak from August to October. However, that dampening effect of El Nino has the potential to be offset by a warmer-than-normal Atlantic, which would provide fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes. Forecasters emphasized that given the conflicting signals, there is more uncertainty than normal. Since 1990, an annual average of 14 named storms formed in the basin. 

There is a 44% chance a major hurricane could hit the continental US coastline, and a 49% chance one could tear through the Caribbean, the university said. In 2022, 14 storms formed in the Atlantic, including devastating hurricanes Ian that hit Florida and Fiona that tore through the Caribbean before flooding Canada’s Maritime provinces. Earlier this year, both names were retired by the World Meteorological Organization.

Atlantic hurricanes are closely watched because of their tremendous impact on agriculture, energy infrastructure and millions of people living along the Gulf and East coasts. The Gulf of Mexico and Texas are home to much of America’s oil and natural gas production and export infrastructure, while Florida is the largest US producer of orange juice.

A storm is named when its winds reach 39 mph and it becomes a hurricane when speeds hit 74 mph. 

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