Russian Media Reports Fire at Gas Pipeline: Ukraine Update

(Bloomberg) -- President Joe Biden said he believes that President Vladimir Putin has decided to attack Ukraine and that an invasion -- including a strike on Kyiv -- could come within days. 

The U.S. said Russia has massed as many as 190,000 personnel – including troops, National Guard units and Russian-backed separatists – in and around Ukraine in what it has been called the most significant military mobilization since World War II.  

Russia told the U.S. this week it has no plans to attack, and its officials have repeatedly dismissed U.S. warnings about a possible invasion as “hysteria” and propaganda. 

Citing escalations in the breakaway Donbas region of Ukraine, Putin called on Kyiv to “sit down at the negotiating table” with separatist leaders “and agree on political, military, economic and humanitarian measures to end the conflict.” The government in Kyiv refuses to negotiate with the Russia-backed separatists, saying they are proxies for Moscow.

Key Developments

• Why Minsk Accords Are Murky Path for Ukraine Peace: QuickTake
• Lithuania President Sees Peaceful Resolution in Ukraine
• Oil Heads for Weekly Loss With Bumper Rally Starting to Ease Off
• Stocks Fall for Second Straight Week on Geopolitical Tensions
• Where Military Forces Are Assembling Around Russia and Ukraine

All times CET:

Russian Media Reports Fire at Gas Pipeline (12:20 a.m.)

Russia state media reported a fire at a gas pipeline that followed an explosion in the separatist-held areas of eastern Ukraine late Friday night.

Some media reports and commentators on social media said the explosion targeted the Druzhba “gas pipeline,” though Druzhba is a major oil pipeline servicing Europe and also does not actually run near the breakaway Luhansk area. A gas pipeline that is in the vicinity has previously been hit, with no impact on Russian gas exports.

The state company that manages gas pipelines in Luhansk said a fire had been quickly extinguished. In recent days, the OSCE, which monitors the shaky cease-fire between the separatists and the Ukrainian military, has reported an increase in actions along the line of contact.

French Tone Grows Darker on Risk of Attack (11:25 p.m.)

A top official of President Emmanuel Macron’s government said all the participants in a call among leaders from Europe, the U.S. and Canada see the risk of an invasion rising. The trans-Atlantic allies agreed they must be prepared to act at any moment, according to the official, who added that a worst case scenario can still be prevented.

The readout from France reflects a notable change of tone. French officials have generally kept their distance from alarming warnings that have emerged from the Biden administration.

The official urged all parties involved to remain extremely cautious regarding disinformation and inaccurate reports coming the region. The person said Macron will speak with Zelenskiy on Saturday and with Putin on Sunday.

Biden Says Putin Attack Likely Coming in Days (11:06 p.m.)

Biden said U.S. intelligence had prompted him to believe that Putin has decided to attack Ukraine and that an invasion -- including a strike on Kyiv -- could come within days. 

“We believe that they will target Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million innocent people,” Biden told reporters at the White House, without detailing the intelligence behind his statement. “We’re calling out Russia’s plans loudly repeatedly, not because we want a conflict but because we’re doing everything in our power to remove any reason that Russia may give to justify invading Ukraine and prevent them from moving.”

Speaking after he hosted a call with European allies, Biden also said that claims by Russia and its separatist allies in eastern Ukraine that the Kiev government has provoked fresh violence in the region aren’t plausible.

“There’s simply no evidence for these assertions and it defies basic logic,” he said. He repeated his own assertion that the Kremlin is trying to stage a “false flag” operation to create a fake pretense for its invasion.

U.S. Says Russia Was Behind Cyber Attacks (9:03 p.m.)

The U.S. believes Russia was responsible for a widescale cyber attack on Ukrainian banks and government websites earlier this week, deputy National Security Advisor Anne Neuberger told reporters at the White House.

Russia has denied having anything to do with the distributed denial-of-service, or DDoS, attacks early this week. 

Without providing details, Neuberger said the U.S. has technical information that showed infrastructure linked to Russia’s military intelligence services “transmitting high volumes of communication to Ukraine-based IP addresses and domains.”

The U.S. has shared that underlying intelligence with Ukraine and European partners. While the attack ultimately had little impact on Ukrainian banking operations, the White House is concerned the attack may be laying the groundwork for more disruptive cyber attacks that could proceed a potential invasion.

Draghi Says Any Russia Sanctions Should Avoid Energy (7:24 p.m.)

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said on Friday that any European Union sanctions on Russia should be “limited” and not include energy, given the impact on countries that rely on gas imports, including Italy. “Sanctions should be focused on as limited a number of sectors as possible without including energy,” he said at a press conference in Rome, adding penalties should be applied proportionally to “the type of attack.”

Draghi plans to go to Moscow and meet with Putin but no date has been announced. He said Putin had reassured him in recent phone calls that Russia is ready to increase gas supplies to the country if needed, and Italy is also looking at other potential energy sources.

The EU and U.S. are discussing a package of sanctions to be imposed on Russia in the event it invaded Ukraine, though European nations have been cautious about the potential fallout on their own economies, including the energy and financial sectors.

Separatists Say Car Blown Up in Donetsk: Interfax (5:53 p.m.)

Separatist officials said a car blew up outside the main government building in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine on Friday evening but there were no immediate reports of injuries. The local police chief said the vehicle belonged to him and he was not hurt, Russia’s Interfax reported.

Putin Orders Aid For Those Who Leave Donbas: Interfax (5:45 p.m.)

Putin ordered his government to provide assistance for people leaving the Russian-backed separatist regions of Donbas in eastern Ukraine, Interfax reported. He told officials to help the Rostov Region, where people would arrive, to accommodate them. Each resident of the separatist areas who comes will get a one-time payment of 10,000 rubles ($130), Tass reported.

It comes after authorities in the separatist regions called on civilians to leave, citing what they said was heightened risk of attack by the Ukrainian military. Officials in Kyiv said they had no intention to use force in the areas. Each side has blamed the other for a surge in cease-fire violations near the line of contact in recent days.

Russian President Says He Ignores U.S. Claims (4:36 p.m.)

Putin said he “didn’t pay attention” to accusations by the U.S. and its allies that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine as soon as this week. “We’re doing what we think we should be doing and we’ll continue to do that,” he said at a Moscow news conference with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. 

Russia isn’t opposed to continuing talks on security proposals put forward by the U.S., but Washington is still ignoring Moscow’s key demands on NATO, he said. At the least the dialogue for now is set to continue, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov agreeing to meet U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Europe next week.

Ukraine Separatists to Send Women, Children to Russia (4:10 p.m.)

Children, women and elderly people will start to leave for Russia due to an escalation in fighting along the line of contact with Ukrainian forces, the leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic said.

The separatists have an agreement with the government of the neighboring Russian region of Rostov to host people, Denis Pushilin said in remarks posted on the separatists’ Donetsk News Agency website. Leonid Pasechnik in Luhansk, another self-proclaimed republic, also urged non-fighters to leave the region for Russia.

Ukraine’s military chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi said the army doesn’t plan any offensive operations and that its actions have been defensive. Kyiv has repeatedly said it doesn’t intend to attack separatist-controlled areas.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe has observed a spike in violence in the Donbas region this week, recording about three times the average number of cease-fire violations on Wednesday.

Harris in Munich Vows to Stay Close to Allies (1:55 p.m.)

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris called the situation in Ukraine “a dynamic moment in time” and vowed to stay close to allies, checking in hourly, if necessary.

In her first public remarks since arriving in Germany for the Munich Security Conference, Harris stressed support for NATO in a meeting with Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

Harris said the U.S. backs diplomacy with Russia, “but we are also committed to taking corrective actions to ensure there will be severe consequences” if Putin decided to invade Ukraine. Moscow denies any intention to attack.

U.S. Sees Biggest Military Mobilization in Europe Since WWII (12:50 p.m.)

The U.S. estimates Russia has massed between 169,000 and 190,000 personnel in and around Ukraine, including separatists in breakaway regions in Donbas, the head of its mission to the OSCE said at a meeting in Vienna.   

The number of personnel has risen from 100,000 on Jan. 30, according to Ambassador Michael Carpenter. The count includes forces in Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Russia did not attend the meeting and maintains it is free to deploy troops on its territory as it sees fit. Moscow denies arming the separatist regions. 

Scholz to Host G-7 Talks Next Week (11:35 a.m.)

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will host virtual talks with his Group of Seven counterparts on Thursday and discuss issues including the situation on Ukraine’s eastern border. Germany currently holds the group’s presidency and next week’s talks are also part of preparations for June’s summit in Bavaria, spokesman Wolfgang Buechner said. 

Putin to Monitor Missile Launches on Saturday (10:55 a.m.)

Putin will observe drills of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces on Saturday that include launches of ballistic and cruise missiles, the Russian Defense Ministry said. 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the drills routine and said they don’t fuel tensions. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who is in Moscow for talks, may accompany Putin to the Defense Ministry command center to watch the launches, Peskov said. 

Russia is also planning live-fire exercises Saturday as part of the biggest joint maneuvers with Belarus in years. The drills are being closely watched by Ukraine and the West amid fears of an invasion.

Lithuanian Leader Says Peaceful Resolution Possible (10:45 a.m.)

“I still believe in the peaceful solution of this conflict,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said in an interview with Bloomberg TV, referring to the tensions between Russia and Ukraine. “There are a lot of rumors, we should probably stay calm.”

The Russian buildup of forces near Ukraine is likely part of a plan by Putin to “get a better, stronger negotiating position,” he said. 

The U.S. has ramped up warnings of a possible Russian attack, although Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Friday that the risk of a full-scale invasion is low. 

Germany Regrets Russia to Skip Munich Conference (7 a.m.)

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said it’s regrettable that no Russian representatives will attend the Munich Security Conference that starts Friday. 

The Munich conference is an annual event to discuss transatlantic security issues. The U.S. delegation includes Harris and Blinken, who will take part in a Q&A with Baerbock on Friday afternoon. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is scheduled to speak on Saturday.

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.