In a year of variable geopolitical risks, trading volatility, and operational uncertainty for the global natural gas market, at least there’s been one constant – the rise of the US liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry.
Given an edge by its shale revolution that was decades in the making, the US became the world’s leading natural gas producer by volume with an output of 110 billion cubic feet per day and the largest LNG exporter in the first quarter of 2024.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the country exported over 15 bcf/d or 111 million metric tonnes of LNG in 2025, becoming the first ever producing nation to exceed the 100 million-mark in a single year.
It’s an attractive number for a market that’s servicing an exponential growth in energy demand driven by power-hungry hyperscale data centres, proliferation of artificial intelligence, and rising electrification in the high-growth markets of Asia.
Asia demands, US supplies
If last year was a record-breaking one for US LNG, this year might turn out to be even better. According to Reuters data, the US has already exported just over 73 million metric tonnes of LNG from January through to July; a 23% increase on an annualised basis.
This is welcome news for Asia’s importers who took in a world leading volume of nearly 170 million metric tonnes last year from global suppliers. The volumes in question are visibly firming up an LNG cargo corridor from the US to Asian markets, gradually shifting American exports from Europe.
More so, as Asian markets see lower volumes from Qatar in the wake of outages caused by the Iran war and transit disruptions in the key maritime artery of the Strait of Hormuz. Indeed, in a bidding war to secure LNG cargoes, the Asians are more than holding their own.
In particular, South Korea, Japan, India, and China took around 40% all US LNG available in a competitive spot market at the height of the Iran war in March and April, according to trading sources. If anything, the development has amplified the investment case for US LNG.
And everyone wants in given market forecasts indicate the US may account for more than one-third of global LNG supply in the early 2030s, and demand expansion looks set to continue into the 2050s, according to Shell’s 2026 LNG Outlook.
An amplified investment case
EIA data points to the US adding 12.7 bcf/d of LNG export capacity between 2016 and 2024. It is projected to add a further 13.3 bcf/d by 2030. Given that US President Donald Trump’s ambition is to double the country’s LNG production by the end of the decade, many forecasters as well as industry insiders say a trillion-dollar opportunity potentially beckons over the next 15 years.
For instance, S&P Global Energy currently estimates the US LNG supply chain valuation to exceed $1 trillion through 2040, and future export activity to generate more than $2.9 trillion in total revenues for American businesses.
But this ‘made in America’ story has a distinct global flavour that will likely come to the foreground at Gastech 2026 in Bangkok, Thailand. It would not be lost on delegates at one of the world’s leading natural gas industry events that around 80% of peak export capacity from currently operational US LNG export facilities is either financed or backed by foreign equity investors.
Among them are QatarEnergy, Japan’s JERA and JAPEX, Australia’s Woodside Energy, Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi’s state-owned energy company ADNOC, and its investment arm XRG. As are European majors Shell and TotalEnergies, with American heavyweights ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Venture Global, and Cheniere Energy joining the ride on their home patch.
All have partaken in multi-year supply deals and direct investment commitments for projects. Thailand's state-owned energy company PTT might soon become the latest entrant seeking both long-term LNG supply as well as equity investments in export terminals.
Expectations of a benign regulatory climate
Most international and US investors can take confidence from a relatively benign regulatory climate, resulting from the Trump Administration’s candid support.
Since Trump came to power and dispensed with developmental pauses introduced by his predecessor Joe Biden, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has streamlined and improved approval processes for LNG terminals, granted market-based rate exemptions, and reduced red tape.
FERC Chair Laura Swett – who is scheduled to speak at Gastech – may likely allude to this changed approach in Bangkok. An ‘open for business’ sign certainly goes a long way in improving investor confidence.
As things stand, eight terminals are under construction stateside alongside nine operational terminals. Another dozen projects have FERC approval but haven’t been built and six terminals are awaiting approval.
Of course, the wider price environment will dictate both the progress and viability of these projects, and ultimately the strength of the US-Asia LNG corridor. But the business case remains strong based on medium to long-term market permutations.
Energy Connects includes information by a variety of sources, such as contributing experts, external journalists and comments from attendees of our events, which may contain personal opinion of others. All opinions expressed are solely the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Energy Connects, dmg events, its parent company DMGT or any affiliates of the same.
