After COP30: building climate-resilient islands with action, not just ambition

COP30 in Belém was a conference of stark contrasts. On one hand, a pre-COP UNFCCC report forecast a devastatingly slow cut in global emissions of just 12% by 2035, a fraction of the 55% needed to keep the 1.5°C goal alive. On the other, the political response remained stalled. The final text’s focus on "calling for efforts", rather than a binding commitment, delays critical support. For small island states like mine, where a single hurricane can wipe out over 200% of GDP, this is an existential failure of pace.

While I firmly believe the multilateral process remains essential, for those on the frontlines, it is no longer sufficient. Our path forward requires a new playbook that leverages diplomatic pressure to unlock the private investment and technology needed to build tangible resilience.

What worked in Belém: the foundations of a new coalition

Brazil’s presidency succeeded in forcing difficult conversations, placing climate finance and the economic value of natural assets at the centre of the agenda.

The "Ambition Coalition" solidified: A decisive group of over 90 countries, its ranks now swelled by Australia and South Korea, rallied behind a clear fossil fuel phase-out roadmap. This is no longer a fringe group, but a powerful central bloc.

Operational steps on finance: The establishment of the "Two-Year Work Programme" creates a dedicated forum to transform the need for trillions; the African Group and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have rightly demanded a base of at least $1.3 trillion per year, from an abstract demand into a technical negotiation.

The Just Transition Work Programme: This mechanism is crucial for SIDS, formally recognising that climate action must support economic diversification, a core need for tourism-dependent economies where the sector can account for over 60% of GDP.

Despite these procedural advances, the outcomes fell short.

The finance chasm remains: The delayed and non-binding adaptation finance goal leaves nations like ours in a perpetual scramble. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) reports that of the $100 billion originally pledged, only a fraction has been grants, with the rest being loans that deepen the debt crisis of countries.

A broken adaptation barometer: The replacement of a scientific 100-indicator list with a politicised set of 59 for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) undermines accountability. For example, if the global scorecard has no specific way to measure the destruction of our freshwater wells by saltwater, then our crisis simply doesn't exist in the official data. This makes our suffering invisible. When our problems are invisible, they are not prioritised by donors, they are not addressed in negotiations, and we cannot hold major polluters accountable for the specific damage they are causing. It allows them to claim global progress on adaptation, while on our islands, the water we need to survive is literally turning to salt.

Australia's presidency at COP31 presents a significant opportunity. Its commitment to a Pacific pre-COP ensures SIDS' voices will be central, and we are hopeful its focus will be on the practical question of 'how will we get it built?'"

Exploring a GCC-Caribbean resilience partnership

The failures of Belém and the practical focus ahead, creates a unique moment for strategic partnership. The multilateral system is struggling to provide grants, but the global market is eager for impactful, future-proof investments. This is where we see a powerful convergence with the vision and strategic interests of GCC nations.

Your unparalleled expertise in transforming ambitious visions into reality, your mastery of large-scale renewable energy and water security, and your strategic drive to diversify economies are precisely the capabilities we seek to leverage. We are not asking for aid; we are proposing to co-create a collaborative framework, exploring a portfolio of opportunities where GCC vision and capital can align with Antigua and Barbuda’s national resilience goals. Potential avenues for collaboration could include:

Pioneering New Finance Models: Exploring innovative structures, such as a dedicated investment facility, that could blend GCC capital with public funding to de-risk and accelerate projects across the renewable energy and infrastructure spectrum. The focus would be on creating commercially viable models that deliver both resilience and returns.

Co-developing the "Living Lab" for resilience: Partnering to make Antigua and Barbuda a testbed for the technologies we both need - from large-scale battery storage and solar desalination to AI-powered disaster modelling. Success here creates a blueprint for other SIDS and arid regions, positioning our partnership at the forefront of the climate solutions market.

Unlocking the value of natural capital: Jointly investigating how to best value and protect our shared blue natural assets. This could involve pioneering new methodologies for blue carbon credits from our mangroves and seagrass beds, or developing sustainable, high-value aquaculture and marine biotechnology ventures.

COP30 reminded us that time is short. Australia’s COP31 will be about practical delivery. For Antigua and Barbuda, the time for waiting is over. We have the political will and the pressing need.

To the visionary leaders and investors of the GCC: let us begin a conversation, let us explore how we can build together, creating a partnership that delivers strategic returns and a resilient future, setting a new standard for climate action in the process.