Tripling ambition: the vision for global energy in 2030

The Outcome of the First Global Stocktake in 2023 called for universal efforts to triple renewable power capacity and double the average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030 to keep the world on track to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), in its capacity as the custodian agency for monitoring these key aspects of the UAE Consensus, reports annually on global progress made toward these goals.

This year’s report shows that the pace of global renewable power deployment continues to improve, with 582 gigawatts (GW) of additional capacity installed in 2024. While this 15.1% increase still falls short of the rate required to meet the tripling goal, it marks a new global deployment record for a third consecutive year, providing much-needed hope that the tripling target can still be met. In fact, IRENA’s data shows that solar PV capacity additions are on track to reach, and even exceed, the required capacity by 2030.

Still, the path ahead demands far greater ambition. Tripling global renewable power capacity by 2030 will require an additional US$8.6 trillion in investment between 2025 and 2030, underpinned by predictable policy frameworks, modernised grids, resilient supply chains, and skilled human capital.

At the same time, digitalisation and artificial intelligence (AI) are redefining what is achievable. Digital technologies are emerging as key enablers to achieving the UAE Consensus targets. They can support the operation of energy systems, using optimised forecasting, operation and maintenance, and are expected to boost efficiency and support energy security by making systems more reliable and resilient.

Both advanced as well as emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) can gain from innovative digital solutions. Digital solutions can enhance energy planning by improving data availability and forecasting accuracy, thereby reducing investment risks and helping unlock capital flows toward renewable energy projects, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies.

EMDEs, representing more than 150 countries and home to two-thirds of the world’s population and one-third of global GDP, still receive less than 10% of energy transition investment. The equitable deployment and distribution of renewable power and enabling technologies will therefore depend on the international community’s ability to mobilise additional financing for renewables, particularly in developing countries.

To this end, a decision at COP30 on the Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T will be a critical driver for scaling up climate finance and ensuring that progress reaches those regions that face the highest barriers to development. The world has shown that momentum can build quickly when ambition, policy, and technology move together. The challenge now is to sustain that momentum, closing the investment and equity gaps so that the global energy transition delivers opportunity, security, and shared prosperity for all.