India’s natural gas demand may rise to 300 mmscmd by 2030
India’s natural gas consumption, currently around 190-195 million metric standard cubic metres per day (mmscmd), is likely to go up to 300 mmscmd by 2030. With a conducive environment, the consumption may even increase to 365 mmscmd by 2030, Sandeep Kumar Gupta, Chairman and MD, GAIL (India), said at the show.
The GAIL Chairman said natural gas consumption, buoyed by its intrinsic consumer-friendly qualities such as low price and less risk, might even rise to 600 mmscmd with fiscal incentives such as reducing GST (goods and services tax) by 2040.
“If fiscal schemes support natural gas, then India’s natural gas consumption might go up to 365 mmscmd by 2030 and by 600 mmscmd by 2040,” Gupta said, highlighting India’s potential in the sector.
Gupta said natural gas accounts for around 6% of India’s energy basket, compared with the global average of around 25%, though the target was to reach 15% by 2030. Even at this level of consumption, India is the fourth-largest natural gas importer, and there is significant potential for further growth.
Natural gas has a compelling case for increased consumption going forward, as it is safe to use, less polluting, and less costly than competing fuels.
“From India’s perspective, more than 50% of the natural gas is produced domestically. Globally, natural gas production is expected to increase significantly compared to crude oil. New production centres are coming up. This will make natural gas surplus,” he said.
Fertiliser is the primary consumer of natural gas in India, and the affordability of the fertiliser producers is beyond question. Many more fertiliser plants are coming up, which will drive up the demand for natural gas. City gas distribution is the second-largest consumer segment, and the government has authorised the entire country for city gas distribution. This is the fastest-growing segment in natural gas.
Fatema AI Nuaimi, CEO of ADNOC Gas, said the market warrants long-term contracts and predictability, which can benefit producers and consumers alike.
“Proximity to centres where gas is produced and consumed helps both the buyer and the producer,” she said.
An established cornerstone of modern energy mixes, natural gas and LNG remain in the ascendancy, with global demand projected to increase between 30-35% by 2050. Coal-to-gas switching, particularly in the energy-hungry emerging markets of the Global South, is the most tangible near-term solution to addressing climate objectives while ensuring sufficient grid stability to underpin inclusive economic growth. No longer viewed simply as a pragmatic bridging fuel towards a low-carbon future, properly abated gas-fired electricity generation can become an indispensable component of the transformative destination of global energy.
However, natural gas and LNG must become more cost-competitive not only to displace coal, but in comparison to renewable and alternative fuels. Strategic viability will depend on supportive and consistent government policies, project financing, reduced infrastructure costs, and a liquid and open trading market.
Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst, Wood Mackenzie, moderated the session titled “Repositioning natural gas and energy transition,” a pragmatic bridging resource to a pivotal destination fuel.
