IEA: global LNG markets gear up for record wave of new projects
The global liquefied natural gas market is preparing for an unprecedented expansion as nearly 290 billion cubic metres per year of new export capacity is set to come online between 2025 and 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), marking a transformative shift from recent years of tight supply and volatile pricing.
This massive capacity addition represents a dramatic increase from the current global LNG liquefaction capacity of approximately 670 billion cubic metres per year, the IEA reports, signalling the industry's largest buildout in its history. The surge in new projects comes as markets transition from the crisis-driven conditions of 2022-23 towards an era of abundant supply.
North America is positioned to dominate this expansion wave, accounting for roughly 85% of incremental LNG supply in 2025 alone. Major projects driving this growth include the Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana, which began operations in late 2024, alongside the Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion and LNG Canada. The Plaquemines project has already demonstrated its impact, contributing nearly half of the incremental LNG supply during the recent winter season.
Africa and Asia are also contributing to the supply surge, though Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project remains uncertain due to ongoing sanctions. This geographic diversification of supply sources reflects the industry's response to geopolitical tensions that have reshaped global energy trade patterns.
The timing of this capacity expansion coincides with evolving demand patterns across key markets. Europe is experiencing a resurgence in LNG imports after a sharp 18% decline in 2024, with imports expected to climb by 25% in 2025 to near all-time highs, according to the IEA. This recovery is driven by reduced pipeline gas imports from Russia and increased storage replenishment needs following the winter season.
Meanwhile, Asia's LNG import trajectory presents a contrasting picture. China's imports declined by approximately 25% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, highlighting the country's growing role as a market balancer through its gas-to-coal switching capabilities and flexible long-term contract portfolio.
India represents a significant growth opportunity, with LNG imports projected to more than double from 36 billion cubic metres in 2024 to 64 billion cubic metres by 2030, the IEA reports. The country's natural gas consumption is forecast to increase by nearly 60% over the same period, driven by expansion in city gas distribution, industrial demand, and power generation sectors.
However, the pace and scale of this supply expansion remains subject to various uncertainties. Market fundamentals are expected to remain tight in the near term, with below-average growth in global LNG output and reduced pipeline gas exports from Russia to the European Union maintaining upward pressure on prices.
The industry's challenge will be managing this supply wave whilst addressing the growing complexity of gas supply security in an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment. The successful deployment of these projects will be crucial in determining whether the global gas market achieves the anticipated transition to abundant supply conditions.
This unprecedented expansion represents not just a quantitative shift in global LNG capacity, but a fundamental reshaping of energy trade flows that will influence market dynamics for years to come.
