Carbon capture reaches turning point as global capacity set to quadruple by 2030
The world stands at a critical juncture for carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, with global capacity expected to quadruple by 2030 and cumulative investments reaching $80 billion over the next five years, according to DNV.
The Energy Transition Outlook CCS to 2050 report reveals that after years of limited growth confined largely to pilot projects, the technology is finally approaching commercial viability. This turning point comes as the world grapples with the urgent need to decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors whilst economic headwinds threaten to derail climate ambitions.
"Carbon capture and storage technologies are a necessity for ensuring that CO2 emitted by fossil-fuel combustion is stopped from reaching the atmosphere and for keeping the goals of the Paris Agreement alive," said Ditlev Engel, CEO of Energy Systems at DNV. "We are at a turning point in the development of this crucial technology."
Currently, North America leads global CCS deployment with 62 million tonnes of CO2 per year operational capacity, primarily focused on natural gas processing and enhanced oil recovery. The region's dominance stems from significant onshore geological storage potential, with approximately 80% of storage capacity in saline aquifers and 20% in depleted oil and gas fields, making pipeline transport and storage more economically feasible than in other regions.
However, Europe's stronger policy incentives are positioned to reshape this landscape. The continent is forecast to eventually overtake North America in CCS deployment, driven by robust carbon pricing mechanisms that create clearer economic signals for investment.
The immediate capacity surge through 2030 will be powered by North America and Europe, with natural gas production remaining the primary application. But the real transformation lies ahead. After 2030, the technology's focus will shift dramatically towards hard-to-decarbonise sectors, with manufacturing industries accounting for 41% of annual CO2 captured by mid-century.
These challenging sectors, including steel production, cement manufacturing, and chemicals, represent some of the most stubborn sources of industrial emissions. For these industries, CCS often represents the only viable pathway to significant emissions reduction, making the technology's successful deployment critical to global climate goals.
The maritime industry presents another frontier, with onboard capture systems expected to scale from the 2040s across parts of the global shipping fleet. This development could prove transformative for international trade, which currently accounts for approximately 3% of global emissions.
Despite these promising developments, the report delivers a sobering reality check. CCS uptake will grow from today's 41 million tonnes of CO2 per year to 1,300 million tonnes by 2050, capturing just 6% of global emissions. This falls dramatically short of requirements for net-zero outcomes, where the technology would need to scale to over six times the forecast level.
"The trajectory of CCS deployment remains a long way off where it must be to deliver net zero by 2050," warned Engel. "Economic headwinds in recent years have put pressure on this capital-intensive technology and corrective action will need to be taken by government and industry."
The economic challenges are real. Recent global instability and shifting budgetary priorities pose significant risks to future deployment, potentially removing crucial financing just as the technology approaches commercial viability. However, costs are expected to decline by approximately 40% towards 2050 as technologies mature and achieve scale.
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) emerges as another critical component, expected to capture 330 million tonnes of CO2 in 2050, representing one-quarter of total captured emissions. Bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) appears as the more economically viable option, whilst direct air capture (DAC) remains expensive at around $350 per tonne of CO2 through 2050.
"CCS is entering a pivotal decade and the scale of ambition and investment must increase dramatically," said Jamie Burrows, Global Segment Lead CCUS at DNV. "It remains essential for hard-to-decarbonise sectors like cement, steel, chemicals, and maritime transport. But as DNV's report shows, delays in reducing carbon dioxide emissions will place an even greater burden on carbon dioxide removal technologies."
The report underscores that CCS deployment remains heavily dependent on policy support. In most sectors, meaningful scaling will only occur with mandates and price incentives, highlighting the crucial role of government action in determining whether this turning point translates into the transformational change the climate demands.
As 2025 unfolds, the CCS industry faces a defining moment, one that could determine whether this long-promised technology finally fulfils its potential or remains perpetually on the cusp of breakthrough.
