OPEC World Oil Outlook 2025 forecasts 123m bpd oil demand by 2050
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revealed its World Oil Outlook 2025 today at the 9th OPEC International Seminar, delivering a firm message: global oil demand is not in decline. On the contrary, OPEC forecasts that demand will rise steadily to nearly 123 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2050, driven by rapid growth in developing economies.
OPEC Secretary General, HE Haitham Al Ghais, said that the world requires more energy in the decades to come, and “for this to be available in a secure, stable and realistic manner that the world will continue to need all energies”.
HE Al Ghais also highlighted that the world will continue to need all energies. “It is also a future in which we need to embrace all technologies, to drive innovation and efficiencies, and ensure that all peoples are taken into account, particularly given that it is the non-OECD developing world that will drive future energy growth”.
This long-term projection runs counter to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which expects oil demand to peak before 2030 due to increased adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy. OPEC, however, sees fossil fuels, particularly oil, playing a central role in the global energy mix for decades to come.
While demand in Europe and North America is expected to plateau or fall, consumption is set to surge in India, Africa, and the Middle East. Population growth, urbanisation, and rising incomes are increasing energy needs in these regions — and oil remains one of the most accessible and reliable sources.
OPEC has slightly revised its medium-term demand forecast, citing slower economic growth in China and faster-than-expected EV uptake. Still, it predicts oil demand will hit 111.6 million bpd by 2029, down only marginally from the 111.8 million forecasted previously.
To keep pace with rising demand, the oil industry will need to invest approximately $18.2 trillion (£14 trillion) by 2050, according to OPEC. This includes funding for exploration, production, refining, transport, and maintenance.
Without adequate investment, the report warns, the world could face supply shortfalls and price instability. Given that many existing oil fields naturally decline by 4–5% each year, sustained funding is essential just to maintain current output — let alone meet future demand.
OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2025 presents three possible futures:
- Reference Case: Demand rises to 122.9 million bpd by 2050.
- Technology-Driven Scenario: Strong climate policy reduces demand to 96 million bpd.
- Equitable Growth Scenario: Greater energy access in developing nations drives demand to 127 million bpd.
All three outlooks show oil retaining a prominent role in the global energy system through mid-century.
The report comes as OPEC+ begins easing voluntary production cuts. Since May 2025, over 400,000 bpd has been gradually restored to the market. However, a core cut of 3.65 million bpd remains in effect through to the end of 2026, reflecting a cautious approach to market stability.
OPEC stresses that the global energy transition should be “orderly, just, and inclusive.” While renewables are expanding, many countries still depend on oil for transport, manufacturing, and development.
By 2050, OPEC expects fossil fuels to account for over 60% of global energy supply, with oil contributing around 29%.
