India Faces Sweltering Summer Nights as Iran War Hits Gas Supply
(Bloomberg) -- India is facing sweltering nights this summer as conflict in the Middle East crimps natural gas supply, which could curtail electricity generation from a key source used to cool homes during the evening.
The nation’s gas-fired fleet only makes up a small fraction of India’s overall power supply, but it plays a crucial role meeting demand during hot summer nights when solar can’t be utilized. The government has in the past invoked emergency measures to ensure utilities run their gas and coal plants at full capacity when soaring temperatures boost consumption.
The war in the Middle East, sparked by US and Israeli attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, have roiled energy markets, cutting off flows of crude and liquefied natural gas to the world and driving up prices. India is a major importer of LNG and other products from the region, and disruptions have already started to hit various industries, including fertilizer makers and oil refiners.
The turmoil comes as India faces a period of above-normal temperatures, which will pile extra pressure onto the power grid. There’s an increased likelihood of more heatwave days across many parts of the country in the three months to May 31, the India Meteorological Department said earlier this month.
Even before that weather outlook, utility Tata Power Co. was estimating a surge in power consumption this summer. Demand could breach 270 gigawatts, Chief Executive Officer Praveer Sinha said in February, which would mark a record and surpass the previous all-time high of 250 gigawatts set in 2024.
India’s summer typically starts in April, but in recent years, the nation has seen temperatures rising from March. Electricity suppliers are well positioned to meet daytime needs, boasting a range of power options including coal, wind and hydro, along with solar. But the evening will be the real test.
“On days of stress, we need about 13 gigawatts of gas power to meet the evening demand,” S.R. Narasimhan, an independent expert who was previously chief of the national grid operator, Grid Controller of India. “If LNG supplies remain curtailed, we would be left with only a quarter of that. It would leave us heavily dependent on wind, which is very unpredictable.”
The highest demand peak recorded overnight in India was 237 gigawatts in June last year, slightly lower than the maximum of 241 gigawatts during the day, signaling little respite for utilities as the sun sets. A shutdown of Tata Power’s 4-gigawatt coal-fired plant in Gujarat, one of India’s biggest, could put additional strain on the grid if it extends into the summer months.
Tata Power didn’t immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.
The evening demand threshold is about 240 gigawatts before the grid starts to see stress, according to Anish Mandal, a partner with Deloitte South Asia who leads new energy and energy transition at the company. “There needs to be careful planning to manage a demand surge beyond those levels,” he said.
India will have options to plug the LNG supply gap from other producers such as the US should there be a prolonged disruption to Middle East flows, but cargoes will come at a higher cost. That may deter some importers, which are more likely to cut supply to industries than bear the brunt of expensive gas.
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