China’s Main Grid Sees Renewables Trimming Chance of Blackouts

(Bloomberg) -- China’s record buildout of renewables may help networks overcome weather-driven demand spikes, according to the research arm of the country’s biggest grid operator.

More than 500 gigawatts of wind and solar will be completed this year, giving clean power a 48% share in China’s total capacity — overtaking thermal plants burning coal and natural gas for the first time, the State Grid Energy Research Institute said Friday in a report. That will help meet a rebound in electricity consumption in the second half of this year and help networks handle demand spikes as heat waves push up demand.

“We expect a tight balance this summer, but peak shortages will be smaller than in previous years,” Ji Guoqiang, a senior researcher at the institute, said at a conference in Beijing to present its report.

Grids around the world are becoming increasingly complex as the share of intermittent renewable generation grows at a time of rising electricity demand and extreme weather, sometimes leading to major outages such as those that hit Spain and Portugal in April. State Grid Corp. of China, the world’s largest utility with more than 1 billion customers, has boosted spending on grid upgrades to keep pace with the surge in wind and solar.  

There could be a record 380 gigawatts of solar added this year, according to Ji. That is more than 50% higher than forecasts from the leading solar industrial group, which said at the conference that production of solar components has fallen because of a furious price war in the sector.  

Meanwhile, parts of the nation are facing a heat wave that has seen temperatures of 40C (72F) around the eastern industrial hub of Zhejiang straining the grid. Heavy rainfall in the southwest caused flooding this summer after droughts in spring in Guizhou, Yunnan and Sichuan, cutting power to affected villages.

Key takaways from the State Grid’s forecast:  

• Expected increases in power demand: 2.5% in 1Q, 5% in 2Q, 6% in 3Q, 6.1% in 4Q
  • Quarterly GDP growth forecast: 5.4%, 5.3%, 4.8%, 4.7%
  • Warmer winter will ease supply pressure
• New installations may be 53.2% higher than last year
  • Hydro -1.2% to 13.61GW
  • Thermal +120% to 127GW
  • Nuclear +32% to 5.19GW
  • Wind +77% to record 140GW
  • Solar +35.5% to record 380GW
• Total nationwide capacity +19% to 3,990GW at year-end
  • Hydro at 450GW
  • Thermal at 1,550GW
  • Nuclear at 67GW
  • Wind at 660GW
  • Solar at 1,260GW

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.