European Gas Hovers Near 2025 Low Before Zelenskiy-Trump Talks
(Bloomberg) -- European natural gas prices hovered near a fresh 2025 low ahead of US President Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who faces pressure to reach a peace deal with Russia that involves ceding territory.
Benchmark futures slid as much as 2.4% on Monday but pared some losses by the close of trading. Prices had declined 4.4% last week. Algorithm-focused funds — which normally provide an early look at the mood of the market — have turned less bullish since the start of the month, amplifying the recent decline.
Prices have been on a mostly downward trajectory since last week, when Trump’s meeting with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin raised anticipation about ending the war. An agreement to do so — however steep the possible concessions for Ukraine would be — could ease global supplies if more Russian energy eventually comes to the market.
Trump is hosting Zelenskiy and several European leaders, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, to set out terms for a potential peace deal he discussed with Putin, with the US expected to focus on territorial concessions demanded by Russia. The US president said after his talks with Putin in Alaska on Friday that he’ll urge Zelenskiy to make a quick deal and told leaders he’s open to US involvement in guarantees of Ukraine’s security.
While Europe has worked to diversify gas supplies since Russia throttled pipeline flows more than three years ago — now getting most of its seaborne cargoes from far-flung countries including the US and Qatar — traders are betting that a possible loosening of sanctions on Russia could allow some of its energy to return to global markets and ease competition for cargoes.
“The US announcement of security guarantees for Ukraine, and reports of Russia’s possible acceptance, are diplomatically significant,” said Tatiana Mitrova, a researcher at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “But the situation remains very uncertain and at this stage, there’s no sign the Alaska summit will materially change Europe’s gas supply picture.”
The European Union has vowed to phase out Russian energy imports by the end of 2027, and with more US supplies expected to come online next year, it’s unclear that an end to the fighting would necessarily lead to a significant increase in Russian flows to the region.
Meanwhile, Norway — another one of Europe’s top gas suppliers — reported an unplanned outage at its Hammerfest LNG export plant this weekend, which could weigh on prices if prolonged.
Dutch front-month futures settled higher at € a megawatt-hour in Amsterdam. Trump will greet Zelenskiy at 7 p.m. Amsterdam time, after the European gas benchmark stopped trading, so the outcome of the discussions won’t impact prices until Tuesday.
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