China’s Emissions May Start to Slide in 2030 on Green Investment
(Bloomberg) -- China’s emissions could decline by 1.6 billion tons by 2030 if the country manages to mobilize 17.5 trillion yuan ($2.5 trillion) in green investments over the next five years, according to the China International Capital Corporation.
The leading investment bank foresees the country’s emissions peaking in 2028 at 11.3 billion tons, it said in a research note on Monday.
China, which produces about one third of the world’s emissions, is due to announce its 2035 climate goals ahead of the COP30 talks in Brazil this year, addressing the carbon footprint of its economy at large, including non-CO2 greenhouse gases.
The country’s energy transition is expected to face steep challenges as rebounding coal generation affects efforts to control emissions. Policy plans to help heavy industries decarbonize have also taken a hit, as faltering demand and trade tensions impact the economy.
To achieve its goal to cut carbon intensity by 65% by 2030 from 2005, China will need to boost green investment by 40% to 3.5 trillion yuan per year through the end of the decade, supporting industries such as renewables, electrification and industrial restructuring, according to the note.
Other highlights:
- Renewable, grid, energy storage, coal power flexibility upgrading, power demand will be key investment areas
- Wind and solar power capacity to rise from 1,700GW by 2025 to over 2,800GW by 2030
- A capacity increase of 230GW a year is expected from non-fossil fuel sources
- Hydro and nuclear may rise by 38GW and 57GW respectively by 2030
- Battery-dominated energy storage may increase by 188GWh by 2030, on top of the 168GWh it had in 2024; pumped-hydro to rise by 58GW
- Wind and solar power capacity to rise from 1,700GW by 2025 to over 2,800GW by 2030
- Electrification ratio to rise to 35%, and 50% of power will come from clean resources by 2030
- Phaseout of outdated industrial capacity has faced obstacles from tepid demand, compared with previous round of the supply-side reform a decade ago
- Crude steel output may be capped at around 900b tons, from a peak of 1.1b tons seen in 2020
- Oil refining capacity may remain at 700-800 million tons/yr
- The number of NEVs on the road may rise to over 100 million, with sales estimated at 19.2m/yr by 2030
- Coal may be buoyed by chemical expansion
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