China Set to Reach Peak Emissions Before 2030, Ex-Official Says

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Halting any more increases in China’s emissions would go a long way in helping the global fight against climate change. 

China’s emissions will likely peak a few years ahead of its self-set deadline of 2030, according to a former top economic official. 

China, which has led the world in clean energy investments for years, is showing sustained reductions in its carbon emissions, said Zhu Guangyao, who was the country’s vice minister of finance from 2010 to 2018. He cited research published on CarbonBrief earlier this month that showed China had reduced emissions 1% over the past 12 months, and saw a 1.6% drop in just the first quarter this year.  

“It’s most likely China will realize the peak of carbon emissions a few years before 2030,” Zhu said on a panel at the Nikkei Future of Asia forum in Tokyo. “That’s good news for China, also good news for Asia, for the whole world.”

Comments from a former member of the government on the world’s biggest polluter peaking emissions early are rare. Beijing has argued that even meeting the 2030 deadline will require great effort, contrary to several independent researchers that have said China’s rapid adoption of clean energy is likely to lead to an early maxing-out of emissions.

Halting any more increases in China’s emissions would go a long way in helping the global fight against climate change. Still, most scientists say the country needs to follow up with sharp reductions in order to stave off the worst impacts of planet-warming emissions.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

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