Oil Gains as Constrained Output Hike by OPEC+ Hints at Caution
(Bloomberg) -- Oil climbed after OPEC+ agreed to raise production once again but did so at a modest rate, highlighting some caution from the group as the market heads into an expected surplus.
The hike marks the reversal of cuts that were set to remain in place until the end of 2026, and follows the rapid return of idled barrels over recent months, as the alliance abandons efforts to shore up prices in favor of reclaiming market share. Traders initially expected a pause, but OPEC+ opted instead — in an 11-minute meeting — to press ahead with its bold strategy.
Brent climbed above $66 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate rose toward $63, moves that follow sharp drops at the end of last week on signs an output hike was on the way. Prices pushed higher after Bloomberg News reported that the European Union is exploring new sanctions on Russian banks and energy companies as part of its latest measures to end the war in Ukraine.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will add 137,000 barrels a day in October, smaller than the increments scheduled for the previous two months, but a looming glut is still hanging over the market.
Early last month, the International Energy Agency predicted the surplus would reach a record next year, which Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasts will push Brent to the low-$50s a barrel. The global benchmark is down more than 10% this year, with President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs also weighing on the energy demand outlook.
OPEC+ said on Sunday that restarting the remainder of the 1.66 million barrels of cuts would be contingent on “evolving market conditions,” and increases could be reversed. The group’s faster-than-expected return of idled barrels over recent months stunned sections of the oil market, but prices have held up relatively well following an initial slump in April.
“The market had expected a bigger unwind,” FGE NexantECA Chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki said on Bloomberg Television, adding that oil could still fall below $60 a barrel into the end of the year and the start of 2026. “Until you actually see inventories building up, then there will be no impact.”
The market will be monitoring whether boosting production quotas will actually translate into higher exports from OPEC+. Some members such as Kazakhstan are facing pressure to compensate for earlier oversupply and forgo their output hikes, while several other producers lack spare capacity.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is visiting Washington in November to meet with Trump, indicating there could also be political considerations behind the supply decision. The US president has repeatedly called for lower fuel prices as he seeks to tame inflation.
China’s stockpiling of roughly 200,000 barrels a day in recent months has helped to support demand, Frederic Lasserre, global head of research and analysis at Gunvor Group, said at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore on Monday. Still, the country might not be able to absorb all of the impending market surplus, he added.
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