Oil Holds Losses as Investors Look Ahead to US-China Trade Talks

(Bloomberg) -- Oil held losses after a third week of declines as traders weighed signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China.

Brent edged lower near $61 a barrel. The next round of talks between the world’s top economies and oil consumers is set for this week, with President Donald Trump expressing optimism about a potential deal.

Meanwhile, China’s economy slowed for a second straight quarter, undermined by reduced consumer and company spending, though Beijing signaled its full-year growth goal of around 5% is still on track.

Oil futures have tumbled more than 20% from their summer highs as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries and its allies ramp up production, while major forecasters project a flood of supplies into next year.

Citigroup Inc. predicts oil could slide toward $50 a barrel if there’s a de-escalation of the war in Ukraine. President Donald Trump last week said he would hold a second meeting with Russia’s Vladimir Putin seeking to end the conflict, though previous talks have done little to stem the hostilities.

Meanwhile, Israel said it had resumed a truce with Hamas in Gaza after heavy fighting over the weekend, with both sides accusing each other of breaching a US-brokered deal.

“US-China trade tension is the biggest dynamic at work at the moment,” said Edward Bell, acting chief economist and group head of research at Emirates NBD. “Geopolitical risk from Israel-Gaza is still there in the background.”

Some key market metrics are softening. Brent’s prompt spread — the difference between its two closest contracts — is still in backwardation, a premium on immediate deliveries that signals short-term tightness. But the difference has narrowed to less than 20 cents. The spread between the two nearest December contracts flipped into a bearish contango structure last week. 

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